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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: johnd who wrote (26742)1/25/2000 12:23:00 PM
From: QwikSand  Read Replies (3) of 64865
 
Johnd:

I may be overly optimistic based on past performance.

But the only point I agree with you on is the execution of Ultra 3. Execution on this chip has been much worse than normal for Sun, and if they don't pull that together the problems really start.

I don't consider IBM, HWP or Wintel commodity boxmakers a threat if the Ultra 3 is pulled together. IBM continues to get their butt kicked by Sun and their new Linux strategy is just a sign of further strategic thrashing, yet another new direction that will take years if ever to bear fruit.

HWP is dependent on IA64, which could turn out to be a disaster for INTC and HWP (plus others). If it does become a threat to Sun, it can't do so for 2 more years in terms of taking market share. This is why the Ultra 3 execution is critical: Zander talks about his lead; he will lose it if Ultra 3 doesn't ship immediately.

I think Win2000 is probably a "Go Directly to Jail Without Passing Go" card on the server side for Wintel. It's 32 bits and will prove to be unsustainably buggy as soon as it's asked to run hard. It's also 2 years away from anything on big servers; and I don't see what the 2-way and 4-way space has to do with anything. There's not a chance in the world that viable 16-way Win2K machines will ship in the next 18 months (unless they're counterfeits like the Unisys machines).

Sun's other main execution challenge, which could blow everything by slowing growth if it's muffed, is the StarPortal/iPlanet part of the world. They have to get their software act together, something that, while they've been good at it, has never been a profit center for them.

So I have plenty of worries, but we differ on one point: I believe the game is Sun's to lose.

Regards,
--QwikSand
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