We should be starting a three week slide -->
Posted By: JesseL
Date: Saturday, 9 June 2001, at 10:31 a.m.
Nothing ever goes down in a straightline of course, but it seems
as though earnings warnings season is going to be particularly
ugly, and if we get no help from the PPI and CPI next week the
rest of June is going to be bad news.
But Bulls, not to worry, Alan Bubblespan will try and stage a
rescue at the end of June. Not sure if he still has the backing of
the Fed govs, but if he does we could then see a rally that
retraces not only the decline, but could push to new highs
topping around September 5.
If this happens, expect a steady decline in September
culminating in a good old fashioned Mother of All Crashes in
October.
But I think its just as likely that Al the Broker's Pal will fail, and
then we are probably looking at a whipsaw bear market where
only short term traders make money playing both sides, and all
position traders, bull and bear, get hammered back and forth.
You'll know we are in that because the VIX will get lower than
low.
Either scenario shows a recession. If Al succeeds in attempting
his false rescue he will crack the dollar and we get a high
probability of a depression in which unemployment will hit fifteen
per cent.
Tough call since it depends so much on outside events. But it will
certainly be an interesting and historic twelve months ahead. |
