Daniel,
Hmm, I am so weak in valuation issues that I won't
try to explain myself out.
The thing that I like about MSFT is its gorrilla'ness
(as in "Gorilla Game" :-))), though
some people would say that this is declining or
disappearing as the PC growth wanes.
This is also related to Buffett
criteria, such as high margins, high free cash flow,
earnings sustainability, etc.
I agree that MSFT is not a value stock. That is why
I never discussed it on "Value Investing" thread.
However now it is reasonably valued compared to
other tech gorillas (e.g. CSCO). It is said that
"tech value stock" is the most dangerous thing, because
they do not exist. We'll see if this is the case
with MSFT and INTC.
MSFT is not a Buffett stock in the sense that it
can become quickly obsolete (see IBM). However,
I think that current concerns are overblown, and MSFT
can deliver another 5 years or so of good growth.
Can it deliver a decade? No one knows.
Finally, I am mid-term holder. If MSFT goes to ~$70
tomorrow, I will sell half position. So don't ask me
to justify 10 year holding. But then there are
VERY FEW stocks that could be held for 10 years
(and I just missed RAL @ $18 this year - SLAP!!! :-(((( )
Take care
Jurgis |
