December 21, 2012 AD. Known as Time's Special Witness ™™™™™™™™™™™™
My condolences to his family and friends - Jack Duffy -
Time for Party Game!!!
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youtube.com Jack Duffy
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The political dynamics will not allow a deflationary depression. If the economy collapsed, the social upheaval would be a 'Riot'.
[Riots are a form of civil disorders characterized by disorganized groups lashing out in a sudden and intense rash of violence, vandalism or other crime. While individuals may attempt to lead or control a riot, riots are typically chaotic and exhibit herd behavior]- From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Trying to manage 'thee' crisis with an inflationary bias, the pain will be more gradual, but it will take longer to work out. This carries the side benefit of reducing the nation's debt obligations through inflation, but this may not be a simple task...
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Monetary inflation --- Next 4-5 yrs --- Economic deflation
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'82 market bottom and final wave of Primary Cycle--- 5th wave of this last Cycle wave either in --- '2002 or 2003' --- and would last about 5 years, equal in duration to Primary wave 1 from 1982 to 1987...
Three primary possibilities...
1, The top is in...???
2, Sub-prime credit problems keep spreading... [ is 'Bayer' Stearns, the last Hurricane-Quake nail in the coffin for the markets???...]
3, Iffy! scenario would extend into 2009. U.S. demographics by 'Harry Dent', while China and the emerging markets 'MAY' work higher into late 2008/2009... The markets suggest the U.S. market top is already in --- but 'MAY' post one new high in 2008... DJI 14,500???
August '07 represented the 'Seven Seas, Eleven Oceans, Thousands of Lakes, Millions of Rivers, Billions of Ponds' Trillions of Toilets ---Full of Changes---
1st significant tightening of credit since the Great Depression of '29. Ever expanding credit kept retail consumption growing... Now, income is contracting, and any growth is unlikely to keep pace with the degree of credit contraction...
SnP 500 accounts for approx. 50% of its profits and its primary uptrend is broken... 'MAY' see the OLD Highs??? The Cashola/Payola system is in contraction for the first time since the Great Depression. Finding a way for the Finanicial stocks to climb to new highs will take any, 'Schwarzeneggers'. With the spending power deteriorating... Is this enuff to power the market to new highs???
Weakening of the labor markets will SEAL the fate of the American Consumer. Even if the market can manage to post new highs into the New Year, the risk/reward ratio would make it hard to justify a large -Long Position- It would be 'WISE' to be balancing to the short side or take a long holiday... It would also make cents to employ currency hedges...
The wave structure and recent >>> Action <<< since the closing peak on -October 9 2007- could help make the case that the top is in... This peak came 5 years to the day from the October 2002...
'Primary' Wave 5 from the October 2002 low to the October 2007 high = Within days of Primary wave 1 from August 1982 to August 1987
If the TOP is in??? get ready for a big Centurion Bear Market!
USofA has been massively accumulating debt, exporting manufacturing & leveraging itself to The Da Moon! for many, many, many -Moons- and 'Harry Dent's' demographic model is exhausting itself. The massive expansion of credit, especially since Greenspan & Reagan, has extended the K-Wave by about a Quarter of a Century...
Increase of concentration of >>> Wealth <<< has also made the system more tippsy. Plus with the failure to strategically move toward an Independent Energy Infrastructure since the warning signs of the 70's is dramatically aggravating the deficits...
With the contraction of credit & housing already in a mess and the Olympics arriving --- the markets may not wait until the Olympic party is over to begin discounting the huge problem >>> Trade deficits <<< Estimates are now over 50 trillion $$$!+ ...As a result, USofA trading partners are diversifying away from the $$$s and its status as the World's Reserve Currency is eroding...
Can >>> Mr. Bernanke <<< along with world's central banks, continue to stretch this paradigm? Market watchers have seen Greenspan, pull "rabbits out of hats" to keep the economy going. -Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke- is known to have made a deep study of the deflation of the 1930's. It is believed that he will go to creative and extraordinary means to try and prevent a similar 'Borg Deflation Crack' in the Foundation of the USofA, perhaps employing measures unused in Modern History...
Remember the Fed continued to lower rates in the 2000-2002 bear market, but it did not prevent the worst bear market since the '70s. Consider that the overall >>> cashola <<< status of the economy and its prospects are much worse today. Many financial medias have compared the market crisis to the liquidity crises of the 1987, early '90s banking crisis, and the '98 Long Term Capital mess. These were specific events that needed to be fixed at the bottom of market cycles. This latest crisis is >>> Systemic <<< It is dramatically different and synchronistically, with the technical Grand Supercycle top...
Dr. Pruden's calculation of the 14,400- 14,700 area on the Dow was supported by the following Fibonacci calculations--- Decline from 11,750 of 4550 pts to 7200. 4550 x 1.618 = 7362. 7362 + 7200 = 14562. Former high of 11,750 x 1.236 = 14523. --- 14,500-14,700 --- Can the target area be obtained??? If so, the risk/reward ratio of being largely long for the chance of getting there is questionable. Regardless >>> We are witnessing the Big Picture End Game... <<<
Technical Elliott Wave models show it's over or about over. If you're wondering if the technical model can extend much longer, a closer look at the >>> financial system <<< will reveal that it cannot...
eg.'Bayer Stearns'...Trade deficits...RealEstate Crash...Credit Contraction...'Harry Dent's' demographic model is exhausting...Weakening of the labor markets... etc...
Historically, there are (2) ways that Nations have dealt with economic and financial >>> Armageddon <<< One is deflation, as was the case in the U.S. '30's and in Japan in the '90's. The other is inflation, as was most recently the case in >>> Argentina >>> & Germany after World War I... Weimar 1919-1923
References:
Prechter, Robert; The Elliott Wave Principle, Crest of the Tidal Wave, Conquer the Crash, and monthly Elliott Wave Theorists
Dent, Harry; The Great Boom Ahead, Roaring 2000s, Next Great Bubble Boom, October 2006 & January 2008 Newsletter
Dr.Pruden, Henry 1FTA Journal, HankPruden.com,"Hank's notes"
Neely, Glenn; MASTERING ELLIOTT WAVE
Zimmel, Manfred; Amanita Newsletter
K-Wave Theory
Watching very attentively for ->>> 13,655, 14,500-700 & 15,200... <<< Long Shot 14,500-700??? --- 1906- All Time high in Copper, 15 year housing recession... <<<->>> 2006- All Time high in Copper, Housing prices to fall for many years...
This is a 3D Fractal comment...Wow!
Bear Stearns --- The explosion of Bear Stearns is a special case. „Stearns” is pronounced as “sterns” which is the German word for “stars”. So Bear Stearns could be easily associated with “bear stars”. Isn’t it an incredible ‘coincidence’ that the supernova that happened within days of the Bear Stearns disaster was occurring in the sign “Bear Watcher…??? -Zimmel, Manfred
Warren Buffett has it exactly right: “Rule #1 is: Don’t Lose Money; and Rule #2 is: Read Rule #1;
Rule #3 is: Read both Rule #1 & #2... youtube.com
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'Sharp Dressed Man'... ZZTop!
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Clean shirt, new shoes
And I dont know where I am goin to.
Silk suit, black tie,
I dont need a reason why.
Gold watch, diamond ring,
I aint missin a single thing.
And cufflinks, stick pin,
When I step out Im gonna do you in.
Top coat, top hat,
I dont worry coz my wallets fat.
Black shades, white gloves,
Lookin sharp and lookin for love.
They come runnin just as fast as they can
Coz every girl grazy bout a sharp dressed man.
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