when consumers are tired of buying the latest digital cameras, iPODs, or camera phones.
Art:
If any of us have learned anything in our investing years it should be that the consumer will never tire of buying the latest, must-have gadget. Sometimes, like cell phones, they provide enormous productivity gains that justify the expense. Sometimes they provide a different form of experience which, while perhaps more expensive initially than the "old" method, provides real advantages (e.g., digital cameras...see your pictures instantly and discard what you don't like, send them electronically, etc.), sometimes it is just fun, fun, fun (MP3 - what teenager does not have some version of such a player or wants one badly?). In all events, discretionary income gets put to work to satisfy these objectives and the digital revolution has simply centered more and more of the focus on electronics than ever before (from my big screen TV to my brother's portable satellite radio).
If one assumes as I do that the world wide consumer is insatiable for new, better, things...and many of those new better things will be digital devices, what is so exciting is the opportunity for flash to be engineered into these products. Miniaturization remains a further compelling objective, and continuing breakthroughs in flash technology are opening doors to some really exciting innovation....the digital camcorder with no moving parts, the cell phone/personal assistant that stores and remembers all of your personal wishes from music to addresses to biometric data...all in a device no bigger than a Motorola Razer. If you had asked me a year ago if the IPOD Shuffle would be a hit, I would have said no....but it had both the chache and hit a sweet spot in design. Your comment on expanded use of USB drives is fascinating...with proper encryption what would a person not want to carry on a little thumb drive for reference as needed?
Where will the rolling demand take us next? A year ago I would not have bet on the Shuffle...a year from now I wonder what will be the "hot" item. Whatever it is, my daughter will either have one or be planning to get it. <g> |
