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Biotech / Medical : Paracelsian Inc (PRLN)
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To: Hank who wrote (2832)5/21/1997 6:09:00 PM
From: John H. Farro   of 4342
 
Hank, you may very well be right, but you are making a few assumptions. Will big Phrama want to try to distribute AndroVir through the dietary supplement route? They may view this as competion with their own higher priced drugs, rather than complementing them. As far as I know they have not shown much interest in this field, though that may change. Would they want to develop AndroVir and AndroCar into drugs? Perhaps, but this would take several years and there are a number of other potential drug candidates for AndroVir and AndroCar to compete with.

But let's say a Merk or a Phizer was smart enough to want the rights to AndroVir or AndroCar. PRLN is negotiating from a position of weakness. They need a deal just to survive, and I'm sure whoever will be negotiating on behalf of Merk or Phizer will know this. Do you think PRLN will be able to get a good deal for the shareholders? Remember, these are the same people who gave away the Ah Immunoassay for a song.

Suppose you got, 1/90 of a share of Merk for every share of PRLN you now own. Though AndroVir and AndroCar will pull in many millions of dollars, it just won't make that big a difference in their stock price because Merk has a huge market cap. An extra $10 - $20 million revenue will hardly make a difference in Merk's billion dollar net income. $10 million in earnings would shoot PRLN to the moon.

Robin
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