I know that I'm tempted to buy VNTV at these levels with the hope of a buyout. This investing approach has always burned me in the past, so I've stayed away.
Why a buyout makes sense. As Siebel proved again yesterday, the ERM marketplace is exploding. This space is *the* place to be if you're selling software. Vantive has a complete offering and has some premier customers in their install base. If I was struggling to sell my ERP wares and was having difficulty delivering an ERM product, then VNTV would look pretty tasty.
Why a buyout may not happen. The best VNTV suitors either 1. are in the midst of a company crisis (PSFT, Baan, Manugistics, and on and on...), and/or 2. They've already acquired or built (ORCL, SAP, IBM, Baan). Maybe a takeover by Clarity or Remedy makes more sense. A takeover by one of these guys would be less than exciting, however.
Anyone with any thoughts on a likely buyer? What are the odds of any buyout? I would give a buyout a 20% probability. |
