Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2835)	11/3/2001 10:42:47 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) of 99280

I see the current period as a "double dip" recession, starting with corporate retrenchment (due to excess capacity) in the first dip, followed by consumer retrenchment, in the second dip. I am not sure yet if the Sep. 11 events will not cause acceleration of the consumer's retrenchment. Recent data do not suggest that to be the case, thus my current model of a strong rally post the December lows still hold. This is the first time I've seen you talk about the potential of not getting a bull rally. What data are you watching? I think it is a little early to draw a conclusion that consumers aren't retrenching. Anecdotal evidence in the Detroit area shows consumers retrenching big time. The housing market here has fallen off a cliff. If consumers do retrench now, how would that change the turnips forecast? TIA Jay

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