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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner
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To: Rita who wrote (2872)11/3/2000 3:15:14 PM
From: David Lee Smith   of 19633
 
I play big dollars in the market and I do use the model (I put my $$ where my mouth is). Currently, I am heavily investing in the Pro Funds Ultra Bear Fund. Even though my model is NEUTRAL, there are signs that it could turn NEGATIVE soon. For example, both interest rates and the US dollar have deteriorated. VALUATION appears to be teetering on going to POOR. There are three components of my model: percentage to target, momentum and valuation. Percentage to target incorporates both value and momentum to get a theoretical target price. I find that +3% generates a BUY, -3% a SELL, and between the two, NEUTRAL. Momentum ranges from VERY NEGATIVE to VERY POSITIVE. This gives you an indication of trend and speed of trend. Valuation tell you what risk you are taking; it ranges from VERY POOR to VERY ATTRACTIVE. If momentum is VERY POSITIVE and Valuation is POOR and Percent to Target is +5%, then the market is headed up quickly with an upside of 5%, but the risk is high. I try to use daily charts for computing targets on interest rates and the US dollar and I use the Standard and Poor's website to get my info on earnings and dividends for the S&P 500. We should see the 3rd Elliot Wave soon. It all adds up to a very sharp sell-off soon and I'm betting that way. I hope I've answered your question.
Best wishes,

David Lee Smith

For information on the MomentuMonkey model click on the following link:

www7.bcity.com
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