HI David: Re> So what if it does go to chap 11... what next....halted and delisted? << oh no nothing that radical, at least I don't think
so, but the stock tumbles way down..likley in the single digits..,
then she goes into reoganization..the people who own the warrents
on ANE will call a lot of shots, new management will come in,
maybe she gets bought up buy a new set of investors, but not at
these prices..before any of that I expect her to make secondary
offering of stock..that will likley drop the stock price in half,
and it may stop there..if they get a new game plan..you can have
20 million subscribers..but that don't do any good if you lose
money serving them..and her plan is flawed..a large ISP is top
heavy..needs to franchise out the dial-ins and not pay royalities
but collect them..let the ISPs collect the money..hire local help,
she just becomes like a parent company..the ISPs become privet investors, like the owners of the Big Macs..you buy a franchise
and open up a AOL link..you meet certain standards and pay a royalty
the thing is AOL is greedy they want total control..it's over
centralized, it wont turn a profit like that, it'l just keep on
digging itself into a hole. Somebody sooner or latter will get
at the helm and turn her around..but it's going to take a lot
of time, and even then the margin of profit won't be so high
to demand the stock price she now has.
I just looked up one of the larger of the holders of AOL,
PNOPX..Putman somthing fund..shes down 9.3% for the year,
sooner or latter pressure will come and she may have to dump
out..look out below if that happens. Be glad you don't have any
PNOPX..don't remember how I found IAEGX..talk about a disaster,
she is down 21% for the year..and in 1995 she had a NAV
that went up to 49.53..its now at 15.58, want to find some stocks
not to buy..look at hers. <G>
See were ARMERINDO..lost about 60 million dollars today..just
today..on AVNT..not to mention what he lost on psix..yet I remember
how his recomendations were taken and repeated like just
as if it came from the bible last year..he was tooting ASND at 70.
man its a mess..market is getting a little pop from last min IRA
money flowing in..CNN talks of how wonderfull it all is, but
avoids saying it will take 4 more of thoes pops to just get us
back to were we were in Jan..I don't think it's going to happen
any time soon..one by one these stocks are going to take their
turn in barrel..AOL..anyday, she's not going to escape the
carnage..about the time every thing else goes up she'll dump.
When their Navs don't look so bad, then the funds will dump
AOL .
Jim |
