Please direct me to a pollster - choose any from the list below - who will state that their poll results at any given time are "correct to a very high degree of probability and confidence. Over 99%."
The last close Presidential race was 2004. 11% of these pollsters had Bush getting less than half of the votes in their final projections. Several also had Kerry getting less than half so they were projecting someone else getting anywhere from 3% to 6% of the vote. That makes no sense. Clearly, the pollsters' assumptions varied a LOT.
Monday, November 8 2004
WHICH POLLSTER WAS THE MOST ACCURATE?: By and large the pollsters did an excellent job this year, especially when you consider the significant variables they were grappling with (massive registration increases, historic levels of intensity, cell phones, etc) and also that they were working under intense public scrutiny and scorching partisan attacks from both sides.
At the national level the answer to the question is pretty straightforward. Ed Goeas's GW-Battleground Vote Projection and Pew Research got it exactly right. Goeas's final Battleground projection was Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.5 and Pew's final allocation was 51-48-1.
CBS News/NY Times also nailed the final spread in the race (Bush +3), though they didn't allocate undecideds which makes their final less impressive than Battleground's and Pew's.
Raghavan Mayur at TIPP also deserves a mention for outperforming almost all of the big media pollsters and coming in just a tick off the final results with their final Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.0, Nader 1.1 projection. Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports also had a solid final result with their Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5 final projection.
USA Today/CNN/Gallup finished poorly this year. Ironically, Gallup would have finished at or near the top of the list had they allocated undecideds 50/50 like Pew, as opposed to giving what appears to be 100% of the undecideds to Kerry.
By the way, just as a point for future reference Bush's Job Approval rating among likely voters in Gallup's final poll was 51%. President Bush's percentage of the national vote total this election? 51.0%.
Of the entire group of pollsters this year, only three got it wrong. Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (the Democratic polling firm for the GW-Battleground 2004 Poll), Marist College and FOX News/Opinion Dynamics all projected a John Kerry popular vote victory. (The Democratic polling firm Democracy Corps also called for a one-point Kerry victory.)
| Poll |
Bush
|
Kerry
|
Nader
|
Error
|
Final Results
|
51.0%
|
48.0%
|
0.4%
|
-
| | Battleground/Tarrance |
51.2
|
47.8
|
0.5
|
Dead On
| | Pew Research |
51
|
48
|
1
|
Dead On
| | CBS/NY Times |
49
|
46
|
1
|
0%
| | TIPP |
50.1
|
48.0
|
1.1
|
1%
| | CBS News |
49
|
47
|
1
|
1%
| | Rasmussen |
50.2
|
48.5
|
-
|
1%
| | ABC/Wash Post |
49
|
48
|
0
|
2%
| | Harris |
49
|
48
|
1
|
2%
| | NBC/WSJ |
48
|
47
|
1
|
2%
| | Reuters/Zogby |
48
|
47
|
1
|
2%
| | Newsweek |
50
|
44
|
1
|
3%
| | CNN/USAT/Gallup |
49
|
49
|
1
|
3%
| | ARG |
48
|
48
|
1
|
3%
| | Marist College |
49
|
50
|
0
|
4%
| | Battleground/Lake |
49
|
51
|
0
|
5%
| | FOX/Opn Dyn |
46
|
48
|
1
|
5%
|
|
