All,
Re: Comparing charts of '96-'98 to '27-'29
I tried comparing a weekly chart of the S&P500 for the periods, and the best comparison I found is that the '29 top corresponds to the April '98 top.
Aug '97-Jan '98 is a very good match to Jan-Jun '29, and the three months blowoff from June to the top on September 6th, 1929, have a good match with the 22% gain the SPX made from 1/9/98 to 22/4/98.
We even had a scary, quite steep, 3 days decline from the 4/22 top, but the recovery that led in '29 to a break of 10% in two weeks (in the last week of September and 1st week of October), led in May '98 to a range bound trade, and after the 3rd time that the floor held, we got yet another vertical leg up.
Does this mean you cannot compare '29 and today, or that the bubble today is greater then the one in '29?
Can anyone dream what would happen should the Dow meet 5000 again? 3000? 1000?
ATG |
