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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing

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To: quote 007 who wrote (292)	10/22/2013 7:21:54 AM
From: Fintas	Read Replies (2) of 15903

In general no argument but the key words are in general. RE: "A high bp in a sector or an index only means that a high number of individual stocks are on a buy signal" No it also means that a sector when placed on a bell curve is too far right. It suggests selling will occur and one shoud be looking very carefully at each stock or component within that sector. POG was in the 80-90 area for many months and as a result the peak was reached. However it's clear to see what happened when it collapsed. To see that decline one had to be able to see where it could end to then see where it could drop. That can not be done with a 1 point value box and 3 box reversal. If you are using a one point value box it's safe to consider your method would not have you holding a JPM off it's lows to a 55 because you would have been flushed long ago. . You also don't mention use additional indicators such as bp rsp, bp rsx, bp pt, bp 10 week 30 week bp mo. Is that because you do not use them, don't have access or didn't want to discuss what their roles are? Re the 108 and other; If you are not seeing those box sizes it's because you are not thinking out of the box. Pull up a numbers table and then look for the sequences. I refer to a CONTROLLING BOX often to allow one to see a trend higher but also allow one to see retracement.To see a spx 1944/2430/2916 one has to be using much larger boxes. While saying that to see the retracement one also has to be using much larger boxes. However there have been many retracements of 54/81/108/162 on the way to spx 1620 and where we are now 1745 ish. In fact there were many on the way down from 1567 to 667 ish. Yet the controlling box was the 486. That can be seen with a longer view of dow or spx. And if one wanted to really tweak it with long time frame one would see the significance of 162. Re: " I don't try to predict where the market or a sector or an individual stock is going I just ride the trend" I do predict where a stock is going as well as a sector or an index. I do it often That's how one can own a stock for years. Using my work I can see both down and UP. There have been many ups and down with GE. The 4.86 is the controlling box for GE. The smaller boxes help to see how GE will reach it's targets up and down. Using the RSI allows for one to see the near term movement but also focus on the long term. That takes an understanding of the RSX patterns which you don't mention. So thanks for your post. You don't put up any numbers so it's hard to discuss where you think re spx, dow or a GE. You don't see any break in trend. So if what you are doing works for you then keep it up. I maintain the bell curve avg wil bottom in the 35-40 area.For that too happen many sectors will have to see selling. I'm not waiting for it to happen I'm anticipating it based on the many data points I use. However since I do predict. I'll maintain my spx 1400's in 2014. Yet I'm aslo maintaining my GE to 29.16 in 2014 and much higher over time. Fintas

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