POPULATION: UN Warns of Falling Population in Europe
By Mithre J. Sandrasagra
UNITED NATIONS (IPS) - The UN has warned that projected declines in European, American, and Japanese populations over the next half century may force some of these industrialized nations to actively seek migrants to replace their deteriorating numbers.
Titled "Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?" Italy, Bulgaria and Estonia will lose between one quarter and one third of their populations. "Population ageing will be pervasive, bringing the median age of population to historically unprecedented high levels," the report asserts.
In Italy, for instance, the median age will rise from 41 years in 2000 to 53 years in 2050. The potential support ratio - namely, the number of persons of working age (15 to 64 years) per older person - will be halved, from four or five to two.
The study, released by the UN's Population Division, also focuses on eight low fertility countries - France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia, UK and the United States - and two regions (Europe and the 15-member European Union). Declining and ageing populations will require a comprehensive reassessment of many established policies and programmers, according to the study.
A combination of declining birth rates and increasing longevity around the world is resulting in a boom in the over-60 population. By 2050, the UN estimates that the number of older persons will triple to approximately two billion, or 22 percent of the world's population of six billion. Complementing the issue of ageing populations is the fact that fertility rates are declining rapidly.
According to figures released by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) fertility rates in the developed world have declined from 2.8 children per woman to 1.6 children per woman since 1950, and in the developing world from 6.2 to 3 in the same period.
Declining birth rates and ageing populations will force western and industrialized nations, who have traditionally attempted to limit immigration from developing nations, to relax these immigration restrictions. The report emphasizes that it is unlikely that replacement migration alone will be able to maintain support ratios at current levels, due to the extraordinarily large numbers of migrants that would be required.
Germany and Italy need, relative to their population sizes, the largest number of migrants to maintain the size of their working-age populations. Germany would require 500,000 migrants per year and Italy 350,000 per year, according to Population Division estimates.
The status and integration of recent migrant workers and their descendants - who are often subjected to dangerous working conditions, low pay, and few or no employment benefits - will become an increasingly compelling issue as their ranks continue to swell. The report estimates that post-1995 migrants and their descendants will be between 26 and 39 percent of the population in 2050.
International migration must move near the top of the policy agenda, as the numbers of migrants increase and the issues they raise become more and more pertinent. According to the report, the number of migrants needed to offset population decline in the United States is less than recent past immigration experience - implying that the United States can maintain its present potential support ratio without significant policy change with regard to immigration.
However, recent developments there have led Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, to call for "expanded immigration"; on behalf of unions, trade groups and others.
Greenspan said that, "a big threat to our continued prosperity is the dwindling number of workers," and suggested, "laws should be relaxed to offset worker shortages."
US immigration laws are no longer being strictly enforced and, according to a New York Times report last month, illegal immigrants already in the country may be given legitimate status, due to the growing demand for labor.
The UN report stresses that; "some immigration is needed to prevent population decline in all the countries and regions examined." There are three other options besides replacement migration that may remedy the problems associated with declining and ageing populations.
The first is a fiscal solution, which involves raising taxes "20- 40 percent over current levels" to supplement social security. Second, the government could encourage citizens to have more children, as has been done in Sweden, in an attempt to keep the labor force stable. Finally, the government could require that people work longer hours, for more years, while individually saving for retirement.
On the other hand forensic anthropologists can classify accurately (80%+) to which race a person belongs. If races do not exist, why are forensic anthropologists so good at identifying cranial shape, nose shape, dental projection, etc. and then placing that person in a racial category?
Forensic anthropologists attain a high degree of accuracy in determining geographic racial affinities (white, black, American Indian, etc.) by utilizing both new and traditional methods of bone analysis. Numerous individual methods involving midfacial measurements, femur traits, and so on are over 80 percent accurate alone, and in combination produce very high levels of accuracy. No forensic anthropologist would make a racial assessment based upon just one of these methods, but in combination they can make very reliable assessments, just as in determining sex or age.
Forensic anthropologists identify skeletons to racial origins but physical anthropologists do not believe in race. The “reality of race” therefore depends more on the definition of reality than on the definition of race. If we choose to accept the system of racial taxonomy that physical anthropologists have traditionally established—major races: black, white, etc.—then one can classify human skeletons within it just as well as one can living humans. The bony traits of the nose, mouth, femur, and cranium are just as revealing to a good osteologist as skin color, hair form, nose form, and lips to the perceptive observer of living humanity. Forensic anthropologists know that the skeleton reflects race, whether “real” or not, just as well if not better than superficial soft tissue does. The idea that race is “only skin deep” is simply not true, as any experienced forensic anthropologist will affirm. |
