Hi JK,
Glad to see you.
I checked the volumes, a few other things. The upshot is that I now see $35.20 as about the lowest QQQQ can go on this trip down. I guesstimated a 70% chance that that the $35.40 level would be broken to the downside, but now I don't think we can get very far below that:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b20][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G
So, I am going to be quick to cover this short, particularly with those ominous looking BBs closing rapidly----this thing is coiling and could spring northward with a lot of vigor with little warning.
Note that the middle of the BBs (20 sma) now sits at $35. 32 and dropping. I think the market will reverse right there. So the scenario I see is a test of support at $35.40, then a quick dip down to the 20 sma (probably about $35.20 -$35.25 or so by that time), and reversal there. From that point, QQQQ won't look back IMHO.
If we can get down that far, I won't tempt fate. I'll flip long right there, unless I see something unexpected develop that indicates more downside. If I flip long at the 20 sma, I might be underwater on a long position there for a bit, but it will come back. But if I find myself underwater on a short position, that one WON'T come back, that's for sure.
T |
