Opinions?
From a current issue of It Update:
NETWORK COMPUTERS: REALITY OR FICTION ?
There has been a lot of fuzz this week about the network computer. The day
before Sun Microsystems announced its network computer (29 Oct), Microsoft
took part of the attention away by announcing its solution for bringing down
the "cost-of-ownership" of computer systems, the NetPC (announced 28 Oct.).
This joint initiative by Microsoft and Intel is mainly intended to take the
current heat off the network computer, which is more and more seen as a
potential threat of the Microsoft monopoly. However, beware that Sun's offer
is real, while Microsoft and Intel talk about a thing from the future.
Sun Microsystems has a white paper on Java computing on its Web site for
some time, and it is a very strong introduction to Java-based and
thin-client-based computing for managers. But Sun has to support its
strategy by products, and the recently announced JavaStation is one of
them. Sun calls it a zero-administration system, supported by
easy-to-administer Netra J (for Java) servers and software and integration
services. Prices of the JavaStation will start at 750 US$, but the initial
hardware and software cost will be small compared to the savings in cost of
ownership. Sun expects that a JavaStation requires about 2.500 US$ per year to
administer, compared to 11.900 US$ for a single PC, also in a network.
Companies with thousands of desktop PCs can hence save tens of millions of
dollars. However, it remains to be seen whether the NC vision (which is
mathematically correct) will be accepted by the IT managers. NCs make the
company completely dependent upon the quality and speed of the network, and
the network may also be a security problem, although we expect NCs to use
reliable network technology like Kerberos in the near future.
JavaStation will be shipped to developers and large customers in December
1996, while volume shipment is planned for February 1997. The JavaStation has
no hard drive, no slots, no CD-ROM, no jumpers, no moving parts, ... Sun
expects the JavaStation to be used first of all in fixed-function applications
like airline and hotel reservation desks, kiosks, stock brokerages, ... First
big licensees of the JavaStation are BT (British Telecom, which will use it
for its customer service. IBM has announced that it will license JavaOS. The
first JavaStations will be based on the MicroSparc II, but Sun will of course
put a Java processor in its NC as soon as possible.
One of the most interesting parts of Sun's Java strategy is the HotJava
Views user environment. It provides an intuitive "push-button" interface to
Java applications all over the enterprise. It aims first of all at NC users,
eliminating the expensive client administration, while providing some extra
tools for coordination and information access. It runs on top of JavaOS, and
is (of course) platform-independent. Having seen the power of this user
interface, I believe that this can really make it, if it is endorsed by other
players in the market. There is a White Paper about HotJava Views at
JavaSoft's Web site.
Meanwhile, Microsoft and Intel have proposed a conventional alternative
(the NetPC) with a 100 MHz Pentium processor, a hard disk that is only used
for caching, 16 MB of memory, and network facilities. Where the NC is a
completely new architecture, this is a stripped-down PC to bring the cost of
ownership down to an acceptable level. The compability with the current
generation of PCs is of course good for Microsoft, as these systems will be
able to run the same software as today's PCs, via e.g. the ICA protocol of
Citrix. We do not expect that stripped-down PCs will ever be able to bring the
cost of ownership as low as that of the NC alternative, but the ability to run
conventional software will be very attractive to conventional IT managers. We
expect both technologies to become successful, with stripped-down PCs taking
the mainstream applications, and NCs for the niche applications. Anyway,
expect a mix of thin and ultrathin clients in your company by the end of this
century. More on Microsoft's Windows95/NT/NetPC strategy at
saltmine.com . If you ever want to see how
easy it is to run Windows applications over a network, even over the Internet,
jump to citrix.com. If you see this, you'll understand why we
think that Microsoft's aren't over yet, whatever the NC promotors tell you.
Oracle boss Larry Ellison expects (just like Robin Bloor of the UK-based
Bloor Research) that network computers will be the next generation of
computers, and that Oracle can dominate this market, just like IBM
dominated the first wave of computers, and Microsoft the second.
Unfortunately for Larry, we do not expect network computers to be the major
computer system of the future, so he may end up dominating a niche market
instead of the mainstream market. The real winners will be those that manage
to sell software solutions for both thick and thin client systems, seamlessly
going from one system to another completely different system. This includes,
but is not restricted to, vendors who provide application partitioning
solutions based on open standards, be it CORBA or ActiveX, and preferably
both. NC hardware providers will not make a lot of money, first of all due to
the low cost and low margins of these devices, but also because of the high
level of standardisation of such devices. Java processor manufacturers like
Sun may make some money through technology licensing, although the margin on
processors will also be very low. The only winners will be the companies that
manage to keep the software and network management cost as low as possible
through simplified application development, program deployment and systems
management. From these arguments, Sun and Netscape are definitely better
positioned for success than e.g. Oracle.
Sun, Oracle and Microsoft are of course not the only players in this
market. IBM is setting up a special business unit, devoted to its Network
Station. Meanwhile, it has added features to the original idea, making its
client less "thin". I would also like to mention the article in Byte, November
1996, "Inside the NC" as a more technical description of the NC requirements.
ORACLE FIGHTS MICROSOFT ON DIFFERENT FRONTS
Although Oracle gets more and more revenue from its NT-based products, it is
attacking Microsoft on different playing fields, going from the NC (Network
Computer) over its Network Computing Architecture (NCA) to deals with
Netscape. To strenghten its NCA offer (and give it more credibility), Oracle
and Novell are exploring the idea to use NDS (Novell's Network Directory
Server) as apart of NCA. This would immediately solve the problem of how
distributed objects can find each other in an enterprise network. NDS is a key
component of NetWare 4.x and IntranetWare, and is one of the areas where
Novell is technically superior to Microsoft. NDS is an extended database with
information on users, network objects and network devices. The bigger the
network, the more useful NDS becomes, and it can be a real money-saver in
large companies. NT's Domain Name Services still have limited directory
services, and it is not a full-blown enterprise directory service. However,
this will surely change before the end of 1997, and we expect a real battle
between Novell's NDS and Microsoft's directory server parts of Cairo.
Meanwhile, Oracle and Netscape have agreed to use each other's technology,
e.g. Oracle will use a special version of Navigator in its network computer.
However, Netscape will also watch Microsoft's NetPC effort, and try to jump
onto that bandwagon as well. There were some heavy arguments pro and con NC
recently by Netscape executives, but we expect the rumble to die out, and hope
that both companies will work together to fight their common enemy. Oracle
should also expect more competition from Microsoft on the database front as
well, with SQL Server becoming more and more popular in small data warehouse
solutions (often called data marts), and being supported by various EIS, OLAP
and data mining tools. Now that Microsoft has bought itself an OLAP tool (Tel
Aviv-based Panorama), Oracle should watch out for this as well. More info on
the Panorama acquisition at
microsoft.com must have
felt the pressure from relational OLAP tool vendors, and announced that they
will ROLAP-enable their Express Server which they bought last year from IRI.
The ROLAP option will ship with Express Server 6.0, which will be available
within 60 days. Pricing was not available, but as with most Oracle products,
it is an option, and you have to pay extra. Microsoft is expected to put the
Panorama functionality in BackOffice, making its prime product family more
attractive. |
