You Won't Believe What's Coming to Texas
pjmedia.com
Stephen Green
I saw the future yesterday during a space launch that didn't happen — and it is glorious.
The disappointing news is that Monday's planned Starship Flight Test 8 launch was scrubbed because, as SpaceX chief Elon Musk put it, "Too many question marks about this flight and then we were 20 bar low on ground spin start pressure." The amazing news is that even though Starship is the largest and most powerful ever to fly, it's been designed from the ground up (and to infinity and beyond) for rapid reuse. So Musk said, "Best to destack, inspect both stages, and try again in a day or two."
Most any other rocket requiring destacking, inspection, and restacking wouldn't be ready to launch again for perhaps a month or even longer. Starship isn't even fully developed yet, and Musk believes — depending on what the inspection reveals, perhaps — that SpaceX can get all that done in 48 hours or less. Even if they need a week, that's still roughly a 75% reduction in turnaround time.
Amazing.
Now let me tell you the glorious news.
Most people have no clue what's coming to South Texas and Cape Canaveral in Florida, but I'm here today to fix that. While I was watching NASA's live feed of yesterday's scrubbed Starship flight test, there were visible just two launch towers. It seems strange to say "just two launch towers," having grown up at a time when a single launch tower was an exotic creature, rarely seen and only on TV.
But what I want you to envision is a massive flatland filled with launch towers, like Iowa corn in the summer.
A SpaceX announcement yesterday gives some idea of the scope of what's coming, but only some:
In addition to continued infrastructure development at Starbase, Texas, where SpaceX is headquartered, SpaceX is expanding its Starship operations in Florida, bringing Starship production and launch capabilities to the Space Coast. As flight testing and development of Starship continues at Starbase in Texas, SpaceX is building a new integration facility, called Gigabay, next to its HangarX location at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. Additionally, SpaceX plans to complete the Starship launch pad at Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at Kennedy Space Center this year while the Environmental Impact Statements continue for potential Starship flight operations from both LC-39A and Space Launch Complex 37 (SLC-37) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS).
In a statement Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis welcomed SpaceX's expansion, saying, "Florida is the present and future of the space industry with leading space companies — like SpaceX — investing in the Free State of Florida."
Why so much... stuff?
Nothing, and I mean nothing, comes close to Starship's (eventual) ability to deliver massive amounts of cargo anywhere in the inner Solar System, but the price is the necessity of a lot of Tanker launches to provide orbital refueling — an art that SpaceX has only begun to perfect.
NASA's Artemis program relies on Starship, and if SLS is canceled (as it ought to be), that reliance will likely increase. SpaceX estimates that for each Starship launch to Luna, they'll need another four to six Starship Tanker flights to fill 'er up and send her on her way.
That might be subject to change. If I understand it correctly, NASA's early Artemis requirements are small enough not to require Starship's unprecedented cargo capacity. If later missions require the delivery of more mass to Luna as our permanent base grows, then more Starship Tanker flights would be required for each lunar mission.
And Another Thing: Associated Press Stylebook rules dictate that the M in "the moon" not be capitalized, even though it's THE Moon, our moon, and not just some random moon with a properly capitalized name like "Europa." (Attempt no landings there, BTW.) But if I refer to the Moon [sic!] as Luna, then I get to capitalize it. So, Luna, it is.
While SpaceX might learn over time to optimize the refueling procedure and reduce fuel lost to boil-off and such, the process is never going to be 100% efficient.
Musk intends to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window (when the planets are properly aligned for the shortest travel distance/time), but at the current rate of Starship development — both the rocket itself and the launch/recovery infrastructure — don't be surprised if that slips to the next launch window in 2028. They come around about every 26 months.
But picture what even that requires. You have five launches for the Mars-bound Starships themselves, plus an additional 50 launches (estimated) to top off the tanks. So roughly 55 launches to send five Starships to Mars.
I had Grok do the math for me, and the two launch towers at Starbase in South Texas are probably just enough to manage all that.
But now let's talk about getting the first humans to Mars and all the stuff they'll require — literally everything — and probably a massive Boring Company tunneling machine to start boring out their homestead.
Let's call it 100 Starships to Mars during the roughly 60-day launch window in 2028 or 2030. According to the more optimistic figures provided by Grok, that means something like 25-50 launch towers.
That number might come down as SpaceX reduces turnaround times and improves the launch cadence supported by each tower. But the kicker is that for establishing a self-sustaining Mars colony, 100 flights per Earth-Mars transfer window is a lowball. Seriously lowball.
Musk's actual ambition is eventually to hit 1,000 Mars flights in a 30-day window. My back-of-the-envelope math (thanks again, Grok!) indicates a need for somewhere between 184 (the most optimistic launch cadence) and 734 (least optimistic) launch towers. Plus all the infrastructure — fuel storage and transfer, ground crews and their needs, etc. — required to support them.
With that many flights, there will be losses, too, and SpaceX will have to build redundancies to account for those.
The scale is almost incomprehensible. But the mission is to make it commonplace.
Imagine that.
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