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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3048)	2/19/2000 9:24:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	of 3339

The Naz looks ripe for a 10% haircut back to 4000, the 50-EMA and the bottom of the Bollinger band. A move lower than that would start to look like the run from mid-October is cracking. At the same time, Naz runs don't usually last longer than 4-5 months at a stretch in recent years. This run should peter out by mid-March. Then the bears can crow victory while longs adjust their portfolios for a few sideways months and count their winnings. Most of my portfolio is in lesser-known small caps that won't get knocked around much if the funds start panic selling in a larger drop. We may get to the point where the "bubble" has theoretically burst, but it won't mean much at all to the adept trader. To those who say the common myth is that "everyone" will get out in time....I can only say that "everyone" is not my problem. Never is in the stock market unless some new benevolent investing oversight crusade broke out when I wasn't looking. Most permabears didn't let up when some of their colleagues got their clocks cleaned shorting mo-mo stocks. Plus ca change......All the best.

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