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Biotech / Medical : ZILA--test for oral cancer?
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To: Julio P. Antelo who wrote (30)6/16/1996 2:31:00 PM
From: Mark Fleming   of 61
 
Julio: I think we've pretty much touched all the bases here; the question is -- what are the mistaken assumptions, if any? Building on your projection of $11 in twelve months: That would be about a 30% ROR from current levels while $19 in twenty-four months would be about a 43% ROR. If you want to indulge in some wishful thinking, you could imagine ZILA perhaps successfully re-investing some of those revenues in more R&D and becoming a nice growth company.

Coming back to reality for a moment, I'm curious how Barnes came up with the $36m figure. Did he just adjust the 1995 bdtc/zila revenues for growth and then add them together? Did this figure incorporate Zila's projected FOREIGN sales of OraScan and such? I ask this because the one analyst projection I've found for zila projected FY96 revenues of $9.2 million -- and I _think_ this figure is absent any sales of OraScan/OraTest.

The growth prospects of zila & bdtc -- apart from OraTest/OraScan -- are decent in themselves, but obviously there's a big premium in the current price based on expectations for the new product. I'm less concerned about FDA approval than I am about the product's medical value. I'm not a health professional, and when I read through the test results, I'm not 100% crystal clear about the value of the test because of false positives and such. Can anybody enlighten me?
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