Hi Chen: Last year ASND was making all the hype noise like AOL and
I knew she was going to fall, I got her a couple of times then she
got me, then I got busy and droped out of the short position
( like a fool ) as she soon after went from 80 down to 40..
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It may take them a while to fall, but when they do they sure fall
faster than they climb.
The networkers are in for a hard time..they simply got over priced
too much money chasing after them and the bean counters were so
excited they failed to look at some of the simple facts.
Lets say the on-line users double last year, even tripled, so the
pie got bigger, a lot bigger, but it also attracted a lot of players
every body and their brother , uncle , sister what have you jumped
into the biz..a pie 4 times as big now had instead of 4 companies
slicing it up there were 25...with that on rush prices and margins
had to be cut..it's going to take a while before they thin out
enough for any one of them to do any thing really impressive..sure
the showed lots of money coming in but the only way to show a profit
was to cook the books. Big pie yep...but many more seats at the
table.and no one of them is going to be so fantastic as to just
grab up all the market share..no way..the buyers of the equipment
are ging to shop for prices..you betcha..
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With AOL, for every modem she has put on line..at least 25 more
have come on line just as fast, the little ISPs are every were
and growing like weeds..they are growing the modem rate so much
faster than AOL is that even more price wars are starting, I can
get local service now for $6.95 a month ! full time unlimited
dial in, ( no web page )..we had only two ISPs in this county a little
over a year ago..we have 8 now, crap AOL is dead and don't know it.
Your long position with cscc is a very shaky one, if I were wanting
to play long on these tech plays I's switch to NCR , she is down now
but she is going to come on back, she don't have that much compition
in what she does..and already has the biggest market share.
Fore may make some gains, but it's going to be tough generating profits for a long while with all the players.
The only tech stocks I own are penny stocks I'v seen to much blood
and carnage in this sector to buy anything pricy. I have owned
a lot of them unwound from all of that.
Jim
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