dear all,
as a new member, i'd like to compare some notes; of course, if u dont mind !!
COMPX - <long term basis> is consolidating within a Hughhhhhh <already been 5 months> symmetrical triangle formation !! within the sym trig, it has been bouncing up and down; along touched the upper band once @4289+/-, and twice on the bottom band @3042+/- and 3521+/- respectively !!! it is now heading closer and closer to the apex !! should it not break the sym trig, it can be bouncing here <albeit a narrower range of the hi/low> till the end of september !! however, since we're now talkin about index <not an individual stk>, it may not be able to contain itself within such a tight range; and breaking the triangle one way or another sooner than september should be expected !!! current upper band of the big sym trig is trading @4066+/- and slowly declining; on the other hand, the lower band of the sym trig now is the lower gap support @3585+/- and gradually rising !!!! should either of them break, it'll signal the true direction of the long term trend <for those long term investor> !!! a break to the down side might bring the index lower to the 61.8% long term retracement that started from 1998 when the index was @1500+/- !!!! so where will the compx be if the 61.8% retracement actually happen ?? using the roughly estimate of the top @5000, the 61.8% retracement will bring the compx down to 2837+/- without upsetting the longer term bull market !!! keep in mind though that this bull mkt cycle has been running since 1991 ... and can stop any time !!! i'm not being bearish, but just being cautious !! on the other hand, the break to the upside may bring it to the previous high @5000+/- !!!
now, lets get back to the short term basis, shall we ?? from the short term bottom @3521+/-, compx bounced back up to the short term top @3936+/- !!! then, retraced intraday to the 61.8% @3679+/-, and currently rising back up, along forming a rising channel with the lower band support ought to be @3767 tomorrow !!! i suspected the perhaps the short term top was already there today when it couldnt break and close above its 100dma @3865+/- !!! keep an eye on the 100dma and the short term 23.6% retracement @3840+/- tomorrow !! should it break one or the other, that ought to be its short term direction !!
here are the several supports, should the compx slides below 3840+/- !!
- current 10dma @3802+/-
if compx doesnt make a higher high tomorrow, here's the short term fib retracement :
- 3840+/-
- 3810+/-
- 3787+/-
- 3763+/-
one bullish note .. should it be able to hold within the rising channel, it might head rite to the 4050+/- within the next few sessions where it'll then be again testing the upper band of the hugh sym trig !!!
one other thing to note .. dont we supposed to get the cpi report tomorrow ???? another thing to turn the mkt up-side-down-and-round-and-round <GGGG> !!! then, the tripl witchin friday; oh boy <GGGGG> !!!
thus, in the mean time ... i just keep nimbling along <GGGG> !!
my 2 cents !!
regards and good nite !!
auto
ps. did i miss anything ??? feel free to add/correct whatever in the message !! |
