Maurice,
<<AMD is alive and well>>
Well let's see. Here are their results for the last 6 quarters.
1Q95 = 0.96 EPS
2Q95 = 0.86
3Q95 = 0.52
4Q95 = 0.52
1Q96 = 0.18
2Q96 =(0.26)
Now I ask you, if this is not being reduced to rubble, what is!?? BTW, their stock price shows a similar trend. You may choose to think my comments are absurd but I think they are realistic observations of an industry I have followed daily for years. As for NC and IBM's backing of the concept; IBM is the best example of a company with "poor vision". IBM handed the entire PC revolution to MSFT and INTC because of their lack of vision. IBM has no vision and no strategy. They continue to grasp at straws. I worked for IBM for many years and I can honestly say that I have no respect for their strategic vision. Zero. IBM is a great R&D company, with little business sense. They have a well documented history of developing products and THEN trying to convince consumers that this is what they need. Their backing of NC reinforces my belief that this is a flawed concept. I can not speak for ORCL.
As for INTC at 120, time will tell. I believe this is a very conservative estimate for a 6 month target. As for "industry recovering", I have no idea about what you are talking about. Recover from what?? Except for some of the commodity chip makers and for companies competing against INTC, the remainder of the industry is doing fine. PC sales growth this year will be around 20%. Although this is behind last year's record growth, I still think it is outstanding. The direct channel vendors such as GATE, DELL, and MUEI are booming and their earnings are VERY healthy; not to mention their shipment rates. The only PC vendors hurting are those losing market share to these guys. A shift in market share is somehow being misunderstood by some as a significant slowdown in PC sales. Some of the chip companies and associated equipment makers have been hurting because of over supply. This has nothing to do with INTC. INTC has a virtual monopoly and therefore has been able to control pricing and protect margins. I see nothing that will change this in the near future.
As an investor I am always evaluating INTC's competition. I thought that CYRX would make a much better challenge. I have considered AMD a non-issue for about a year. It is my assessment that INTC has widened their dominance and that they have never felt such little competitive pressures. This is not to say that they don't have any. I have always believed that competition is healthy for both INTC and the industry. Competition keeps you sharp and helps you "push the envelope". In addition, it helps keep Uncle Sam off of your back. I hope AMD and CYRX can hang in there, but I have my doubts. Don't know what will happen to AMD, but I think CYRX will eventually be saved (i.e. bought). The real competitive threat is coming FROM INTC and is aimed at SUNW and some of the other high-end players.
FF |
