Chuzzlewit,
I agree with DouHboy that CIENA is undervalued at 30 or
below. Short term wise, I wouldn't buy it at the moment
for anything less that 30 because there is a lot of
confusion and doubt now, but I think most of it is
short term.
CIENA is a high powered future technology. You can
say that TLAB over paid, or the market is saying that
it was overvalued. Markets can be wrong. That's why
we buy a lot of time.
The true history of CIEN is that it can easily be a $100
stock if all its potential is unlocked, if future market
demand was firmly established (we know it is, but the question
is when not if), and if we knew what the status was in the WDWM
development cycle for Lucent and other companies developing
the technology. Also, I think it's safe to assume that
there are "secret" or at least unknown relationships between
Lucent and AT&T and the Bells. (Doesn't necessarily mean
it's bad for CIEN, just have to wait and see how the game
develops)
Because of this "volatile" history, it's hard to figure out
future cash flows and present values. I would think somebody
would start with a worse case estimate and a best case
estimate, and the two would vary considerably. And there
would be a lot of variability in estimates by different
bidders.
To make a long story short, one could easily make a case
for CIEN to be worth $35 at the moment, or $100. If I was
a CIEN holder right now, I wouldn't want to go to cheaply,
if at all. Wait three more months and there's a good chance
the telecom merger frenzy will be in full heat. Something
will come up with CIEN to boost it's respectability as
usually has happened in the past.
joe |
