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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition

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To: Glenn McDougall who wrote (3270)	9/6/2002 11:11:43 AM
From: Glenn McDougall	Read Replies (1) of 3294

And another from CIBC... Component Darwinism: Embracing the Upcoming Shakeout * Lessons from past industry shakeouts appear eerily recognizable. Excluding the few hundred optics and IC start-up casualties, our prediction sees the top 25 surviving optical and comIC vendors dwindling to just 4 or 5 by 2006. So why hasn't the consolidation started yet? * On average the group is down 86%. Conditions are intimidating, but they also offer opportunities. Relatively, we like the ComIC business model vis-a-vis optics companies. The new value chain will offer opportunities for module and outsourcing players. * The thrust of this report surrounds one question - What does the sector need to do now to become a healthier industry in 4 years? We offer a host of answers. Basically, investors may wait for consolidation and disaggregation to take place before feeling the sector is investable. * We continue to underweight the communications equipment and component sectors waiting for 1) fundamental stability from the carriers, 2) growth in IT spending, and 3) component vendor consolidation making for a healthier industry looking years ahead.

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