China economy still seen competitive despite SARS
Reuters, 04.30.03, 11:39 PM ET
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By Scott Hillis
BEIJING, May 1 (Reuters) - From empty shops to a sparsely attended trade fair, SARS is eating away at China's economic growth, but there are few signs yet that it is gnawing at the foundation of the world's sixth-biggest economy.
A vast pool of cheap labour and Beijing's ability to keep the economic fires stoked through state investment in projects like roads and irrigation will help China weather the outbreak of SARS, economists said.
Almost everyone agrees economic growth will fall short of initial projections as the flu-like disease, which has killed 159 people and infected nearly 3,500 in China, hits tourism, retail and entertainment businesses.
But the impact has mainly been on the "demand side" of the economy so far. That means buying of goods and services has suffered as people hunker down and wait for the crisis to pass.
For example, the country's top trade fair, which wrapped up last month, suffered its worst showing in 15 years, with just $4.4 billion in export orders, against $18.5 billion at the last one.
Held in the southern province of Guangdong where SARS began late last year, the Canton Trade Fair also reported just 23,000 visitors, down from 135,000 last autumn, meaning 112,000 fewer hotel guests, restaurant-goers and shoppers.
DEMAND MAY BOUNCE BACK
Such developments are expected to dampen economic growth, which came in at eight percent in 2022 and an eye-popping 9.9 percent on the year in the first quarter.
Estimates vary, but economists have trimmed 2003 forecasts by anywhere from a few tenths of a percentage point to a full point or more, depending on how long it takes to bring Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome under control.
If China can do so quickly, most damage would be limited to the second quarter and could be largely made up later in the year, economists said.
Tourism, the hardest-hit sector, only accounts for around five percent of the economy. So while vacant airports and bored travel agents make for good pictures, the impact of the travel slowdown on the overall economy is mild.
"If the SARS epidemic is over in Asia by mid-year, the current weakness in demand will self-correct as households and businesses catch up on postponed investment and consumption decisions," Barclays Capital economist Dominique Dwor Frecaut wrote in a research note.
In Beijing, now the world's hardest-hit area, empty shopping malls, shuttered theatres and eerily bare streets contrast with the rest of the country, which has largely gone about business as usual.
"In most of China, (there is) only limited impact to date on manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade and government," Donald Straszheim, head of a consultancy based in Santa Monica, California, said in a note.
"Most people are still working, earning and spending," Straszheim said.
SUPPLY SIDE SEEN SAFE
But a hit to the "supply side" of the economy would be far more worrisome.
That would happen if SARS makes the cost of doing business so high as to make investing in China unprofitable.
Foreign firms, which have increasingly relied on China for cheap exports, would turn to other countries and foreign direct investment would shrink.
"SARS is a massive shock to the region's domestic demand. However, it is a one-time loss. If it permanently changes global capital flow, the economic damage would be far greater," Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie said in a recent report.
The good news is that SARS appears unlikely to wreak that kind of damage on China, whose hundreds of millions of unemployed workers and surplus rural labourers make it practically unbeatable when it comes to wages.
"The only possibility for FDI diversification is that the SARS risk becomes so high that most companies stop investing in China, which would remove China as the price setter. We do not see this likely in the near future," Xie said.
And while Beijing's budget hole has steadily widened thanks to several years of deficit spending, government debt is only about three percent of GDP, well within the four percent level seen as worrisome.
"While China has the largest epidemic and will probably need some time before confidence is restored, its policy flexibility is greater," Frecaut wrote, adding that SARS-related output losses are therefore likely to be smaller.
"Because of policy flexibility, discussions of a collapse in Chinese growth appear highly premature," Frecaut said.
Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service
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