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Technology Stocks : Data Dimensions
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To: hasbeen101 who wrote (3297)10/10/1997 11:35:00 AM
From: Bob Trocchi   of 4571
 
To All:

With fear and trepidation here are my predictions for DDIM earnings and subsequent short term stock price.

Apologies to TA who has done an outstanding job of reading the "tea leaves of charting" and predicting the future with a great deal of accuracy.

Sondo, please don't react by simply saying I HAVE NEVER BEEN RIGHT. I know that but I have the law of averages with me!! >G<

My expectations are as follows;

1. At last conference call, Larry Martin in response to my question about analysts earnings forecasts for the next q and for the year was that "he was comfortable."

2. Since then, analysts have quietly downgraded the forecast for this q from 0.20 to 0.13/share.

3. I predict 0.14 or 0.15 eps with a PR release that DDIM beat analysts expectations.

4. Earnings will have doubled from the 0.07 from prior q and a lot of emphasis will be made in the conference call and the press release that Ardes 2000 slightly missed projections but interest is very high, witness the new alliances recently announced. Stock price will rise. The exact same thing happened with MOT recently when they beat twice lowered analysts eps forecasts and the stock had a good run!

My reasoning for the above scenario are that ;

1. I feel consulting revenue from prior contracts is quite predictable and it is within reason at today's business to double from prior q. Might need a little accounting fudging but that has been done before by lots of companies. Al legal but soe day that bird comes home to roost.

2. I believe the drop to 0.13 from 0.20 earnings forecast is based on less than expected ARDES sales

3. The lack of new contract announcements will require a very positive spin on ARDES 2000 thus the announcements that have just been made which are not truly significant but does show interest. IMO, the lofty stock price is based mostly on significant ARDES sales not q over q doubling of consulting business.

4. They need to have a positive spin on ARDES since they had management and employee disruption in that group during this past Q.

Thus by guiding the analysts to lower their forecast from 0.20 to 0.13, and then announcing earnings of about 0.15, they will "beat forecasts," put a positive spin on ARDES and make investors happy. Happy investors are usually bullish.

I still think the fundamentals are poor and I remain a past short loser and a potential future short....... and winner.

Baring a significant stock market drop, I expect mid 40's by month end or shortly after the earnings announcement whenever that happens.

I would be interested in others comments.

Bob T.
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