Dom,
I guess your question is what is my opinion of how the street will react to Intel earnings in light of the preannounced disappointments from other tech companies. My guess is that if Intel were to announce below median expectations, it would lose 10%; at median expectations would continue the range at that time, maybe trend up; 10% above expectations would send Intel to new highs. Intel is very careful about their forward looking public statements, if you go back to their statements after second quarter earning you can be assured that they will at minimum meet their own projections, at maximum (agree with Barry) 10% above their projections. Otherwise thay would have made another announcement.
At present and in the meantime we have many things that can influence the techs and Intel. We have had pretty much all bad tech news, more than unusual even for earnings warning season. I believe the current steet sentiment is leaning towards the negative. Next week we have the real earning from MOT (10/6) and WDC (10/9), both have warned, this shouldn't help to improve confidence. Also the techs should react to the overall market which has been range bound for 10 trading days and is about due for a breakout in one direction or the other.
The following week should be very interesting (understatement) with the following earnings:
10/14- INTC, Seagate
10/15- TI
10/16- CPQ, QNTM, Iomega, SUWN
10/17- Options experation
My only prediction for that week is volume and volitility, it should really be something. Some would say that, with the exception of Seagate and QNTM, all the techs announcing that week are expected to do very well, and that buying prior to the first announcements would be a good strategy.
Apology to those who don't trade Intel for this long note.
John
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