olibabe-
I see what you are getting at with that post, but I don't think we are heading into a cyclical downturn. There are a lot of other relevant issues to understand other than this chart, like industry capacity utilization, capital expenditures by chip companies over the last couple of years, semicondictor demand, and the trends in the industry. Demand (for semiconductors and therefore semi equipment) is at or near all time highs as chips are getting smaller, use is proliferating, and the industry migrating to copper. Foundries are tight and need equipment, Intel can't even meet demand. All of the majors are planning or are in the process of building copper plants (AMAT has significant market share in Copper equipment).
As far as cycles go, yes, we have come a long way in terms of the B:B ratio, however, this should continue on a general upward trend (yes, there will be pullbacks) well into 2001.
That's why I am not worried.
JMO-
Grabs |
