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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.52

-0.3%

Jan 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (34244)	11/26/1999 12:26:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) of 99985

There is little doubt in my mind that the NAZ now is a huge bubble. And when it bursts I look for a huge drop -- at least 30% -- in a matter of weeks. But this does not mean the NAZ necessarily is a good short now. There is absolutely no way to predict in advance how high we will go before the inevitable collapse. But one thing that may enable us to recognize the top when it occurs is reaction to news. The NAZ has responded extraordinarily well to news during this runnup. The leading tech stocks go wild on any good news and virtually ignore bad news of any kind. As long as this pattern continues going short is suicidal. But once the NAZ stops soaring on good news and ignoring bad news the top will either be at hand or very close. Could happen next week. Or maybe not until January and NAZ 4000+. But it will happen.

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