Cisco, here's how I see your toss-ups breaking, as of today:
Gore: AR-6, DE-3, FL-25, MI-18, MN-10, NM-5, OR-7, PA-23, & WI-11 for 119 electoral votes.
Bush: ME-4, NH-4, TN-11, WA-11.
Gore wins. My rationale is that the states where Nader is going to bring on a defeat are going to break back to the Democratic side. They are Wisconsin, Minnesota and Oregon. Also the big union states are going to pull out all the stops: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The key is Gore having to win three out of four among MN, WI, WA, and TN. I think it's doable. Obviously, Gore has a lot more territory to defend than Bush does. If I were Bush, I would plop myself down in one of those big states where he has a chance (Florida or Pennsylvania) and circle that state for the next five days. That should be worth at least a 5 % bump in the polls in that state and put him over the top. Why bother spreading yourself thin at this point? It would be a novel way to finish off a campaign and it would put Gore in a box. |
