Harold,
I'd have to respectfully disagree with your comment that "The few that seem headed for late-stage trials seem to pale next to Avonex". With each of these products it is certainly harder to dream about the size of the potential revenues but that is due to the uncertainty that comes from a lack of clinical data in a specific indication.
For example, if the CD40Ligand antibody worked extremely well to reduce the level of anti-double stranded DNA antibodies (which are very clearly implicated in the pathology of Lupus nephritis) I could envision a very positive clinical result in Lupus. There are nearly as many Lupus patients in the US as there are MS patients, and the morbidity of Lupus presents a significant unmet need. Further, if the above assumptions were true, then I think it would be reasonable to assume a much higher probability of success in other autoantibody-mediated diseases such as Autoimmune Hemolytic Anemia, Idiopathic Thrombocytopenia Purpura and Myasthenia Gravis (combined patient numbers in the 300k+ range). So, making the above and certain pricing assumptions, I can make a case that the CD40Ligand antibody could be an even bigger drug than AVONEX(TM). I think the same could be said of the VLA4 small molecule antagonists.
Obviously, believing the above requires a certain act of faith since there is as yet little hard data to support the hypothesis of efficacy in man. But the same could have been said of AVONEX(TM) 4-5 years ago. That's life in the pharmaceutical industry.
Of course - as in any business - we recognize that it is better to have a pipeline of products that is on the whole closer to market rather than farther, and we're doing our best to augment the clincal pipeline. Regarding our efforts to in-license clinical-stage products I'd refer you to my post of Sept 3. Although it isn't very specific in identifying what kinds of products we're currently trying to bring in-house, you can understand that insider trading regs require us to be extremely coy. [I don't look good in prison stripes:)]
As for our research focus, one of our strongest interests is in identifying and developing novel protein agonists. For example, we have a research program attempting to find proteins involved in renal regeneration. Also, we recently signed a deal with Ontogeny to leverage the significant advances that have been made over the past few years in the area of developmental biology, where factors that direct the development and differentiation of embyonic and fetal cells (eg. the hedgehog proteins) may have activities that extend to adult cells.
I hope this information helps.
Rick Lundberg
Biogen Investor Relations |
