tom,
>>Tuck, you are a rational and sane observer of the biotech scene. Why is INCR down some 20-25%% since the ELN partnership announcement?
Tax selling? <<
Flatterer! OK, I'll take rational and sane, but also throw in ignorant -- at least of biology.
Anyhow, I'd say a combo of tax-loss selling as you say, as well as margin calls, good old fashioned selling on the news (a deal was anticipated?), and maybe the perception that ELN got too good a deal at INCR's expense. Not saying that's the reality -- looks reasonably fair given what each side brings to the deal and the positions they are negotiating from. And sometimes it is bad to wait for a better deal, because it is a distraction, and also because the competition will gain. Nevertheless, while the deal validates INCR, if INCR achieves the kind of 100 bag success we're looking for, ELN will have bought in cheap via warrants and converts. That selling of the converted stock by ELN might keep something of a lid on INCR. Though at least it's not direct. The stock sold would be Incara Development. So the dilutive effects aren't that bad, and I could see INCR being a 50 - bagger from here, if all goes well. But a hundred? Probably not. But seems as plausible to me as any other candidate.
Looks like we might actually get the January Effect in January, for a change. That really crossed me up, as I'd just gotten used to it being in Novemeber.
Cheers, Tuck |
