Just wanted to drop by here and share my current Gorilla Game thoughts.
First, my experience in the past year. Wanted to post this to give people an idea of what they might expect if they're pursuing Gorilla game exposure.
Gorilla Game Stocks I bought, in order of size of position:
1. ITWO i2 (candidate)
2. ORCL Oracle (gorilla)
3. PSFT Peoplesoft (chimp?)
4. MANU Manugistics (dying candidate - pretty dead now)
and maybe if it qualifies:
5. CKFR Checkfree (electronic bill pay - perhaps a gorilla??? not sure)
How things have worked out.
ITWO: Purchased in several small lots. First lot bought at 33. Stock moved up above 40 for a while, then started rapid decent following the cautious CC. Bought some more at 22. Stock continued down. Bought some more at 16. Stock continued down (this is part of the summer correction). Stock bottoms at 10 and begins its steady march to current price of around 33. Lesson: If you're into the gorilla candidates hold on for the ride of your life. When it's real money it's hard to hold on through 70% price corrections. Definitely view them as buying opportunities if outlook is still bright. Still long every share of ITWO that I've bought.
ORCL: Bought last summer at around 24 after a quarter or two of positive earnings surprises without analyst remark. Finally the message is clear. This gorilla is back. Stock runs to current price of around 60. Unfortunately I sold (by mistake - thought I'd cancelled a limit order but hadn't) at around 52. This is what happens when a gorilla comes back to life.
PSFT: Bought just a few months ago at 19. Sold at 19 after poor earnings report and outlook going forward. Not sure what lesson is here - other than stay with the biggest and the baddest in a sector. For some reason I'm still interested in the company, but view it as 2nd fiddle to ORCL and SAP.
MANU: This is what happens when a gorilla candidate dies. If you're not familiar with MANU, check out its chart. From a price of around 50 or 60 to under 10 within a year. I rode this thing from 28 to 10 in what was fortunately a very small position. I had felt ITWO would win in SCM, and this has been born out. MANU is dead as a candidate. One thing to notice. When a gorilla candidate dies like MANU, look at what happens to the competitor (ITWO). This is a gorilla game consolidation happening in real time. Don't miss it.
CKFR: Quick double. almost too easy. Totally luck.
l would be interested in hearing other experiences with gorilla game stocks this year - both the good and the bad.
Going forward I'm looking for opportunities to buy on weakness:
ORCL, SAP, ITWO, DCTM. DCTM is looking very interesting right now, but I'm holding off to let the dust settle a bit following the big price decline. I'm still expecting a generally weak 1999 due to money Y2K is taking out of IT budgets. QCOM is interesting. I am also looking into broadband and Cable companies, but still have alot of learning to do there.
Interested in some of the semi-equips also, but want to catch them in the next big bear cycle. Semi-equips are extremely cyclical gorillas, and I think they require a little bit different investment approach than your pure growth gorillas.
and of course am always on the lookout for cheap MSFT and CSCO. LU may be sneaking into that boat too.
Shane |
