Support for Western Separatism Nearing Levels of 1980s Quebec: New Study
Paul Rowan Brian
6/26/2025|Updated: 6/26/2025
The Western separatist movement is reaching levels of support seen during the initial surge of Quebec’s independence movement in the 1980s, says a new study from the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy.
The report, released on June 26, noted that while support for Western separatism is still not as high as Quebec at the peak of its sovereignty movement, support for western provinces leaving Canada continues to grow.
The report’s authors Mark Milke and Ven Venkatachalam noted this trend could follow the path that led to Quebec’s 1995 referendum, when 49.4 percent of voters called for separation.
“In at least two provinces, support for separation exceeds current Quebec support for separation and is nearing percentages achieved in the 1976 election of the Parti Quebecois and support for separatism in the 1980 referendum,” said the report.
The authors evaluated the trajectory of support for western separatism by studying polling trends in recent months.
For example, a poll conducted in late April by Innovative Research found that 34 percent of Albertans said they would “probably” or “definitely” support separation post-election, while a Mainstreet Research poll released in early May determined that 36.5 percent of Albertans would “strongly” or “somewhat” support separating.
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Through polling analysis, the authors estimate current support for separation to be a high of 36.5 percent in Alberta, 33 percent in Saskatchewan, and 20 percent in British Columbia. The authors noted that due to the overall upward trends in support for separation, the figures “might be better seen as a potential floor and not necessarily a ceiling.”
In comparison with separatist sentiment during historic Quebec votes for separation, the 1976 election of the separatist Parti Québécois in Quebec occurred with just over 41 percent of the vote. In the 1980 Quebec referendum on separation, 40 percent voted for sovereignty association with Canada.
Post-election support for separation in Quebec currently hovers at around 30 percent, according to a recent Angus Reid poll.
Don’t Underestimate Western Separatism, Report Warns
According to the authors, Western separation should not be underestimated, and could follow a similar trajectory to the rapid growth of separatist sentiments in Quebec between 1976 to 1995.
The report notes that “there are echoes of 1970s Quebec in current polling numbers in some pockets of Western Canada,” referencing the separatist climate that led up to the 1976 election of the Parti Québécois and charismatic leader René Lévesque.
The report notes that though Quebec ultimately did not successfully separate from Canada due to a slim majority voting to remain, support for Quebec separatism was “enough to convulse Quebec and the rest of Canada in the question of separation from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s.”
The report also says that Western separatism could balloon if new pro-Quebec policies or powers are exerted contrary to the interest of Western provinces, given the new balance of power in the House following the election, with the Bloc Québécois winning 22 seats and the NDP dropping to 7.
“It would be a mistake to assume that any existing or new policies seen as uniquely favourable to Quebec would not exacerbate separatist sentiment in Western Canada. An example is what appears to be a potential Quebec veto on cross-country pipelines offered up by Prime Minister Mark Carney,” said the report.
Carney has stated that he would be open to a new pipeline if a national “consensus” is reached. Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet has expressed opposition to pipelines, while Quebec Premier François Legault has his government will “look at it” if a proposal is brought forward. Overall support for pipelines has grown among the Quebec population, according to polls.Western
Alienation on the Rise
The issue of western alienation gained steam after the federal Liberals won the April 28 election and formed a minority government in Ottawa. The issue sparked national date after Reform Party founder Preston Manning wrote in an op-ed that a fourth Liberal government in Ottawa would inflame Western separatism and potentially see it spread from Alberta and Saskatchewan to B.C. and Manitoba.
Acknowledging the growing Western separatist sentiment, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said shortly after the election that although she is not a separatist, she would allow a citizen-led petition to become a referendum question if it meets the legislative requirements.
“I personally still have hope that there is a path forward for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” said Smith, adding that those who want to separate are not traitors and “are quite literally our friends and neighbours who have just had enough of having their livelihoods and prosperity attacked by a hostile federal government.”
Smith has asked Carney to get rid of federal legislation she says is harming Alberta’s energy sector, such as a ban on oil tankers on the West Coast, a request denied by Carney. Smith’s administration has also been prominent in opposing the federal Impact Assessment Act, which Smith says adds an unnecessary regulatory burden that weighs down major projects like pipelines.
Additional complaints against Ottawa from Smith include accusations of the Liberals being responsible for Canada’s problems with inflation, housing costs, crime and debt.
Smith this week announced the Alberta Next Panel aimed at providing a place for Albertans to discuss the province’s interests in growing its economy and protecting itself from any “hostile” policies from Ottawa.
Speaking at a related press conference, Smith said that “Albertans recognize that Canada has not been working for our province for a long time,” adding that “for the last ten years, Ottawa, led by successive Liberal governments propped up by their NDP allies have attacked our economy and taken direct aim at Alberta’s core industries.”
Answering a question about the growth of the Albertan separatist movement, Smith said that she hopes Prime Minister Mark Carney “takes the separatist sentiment as seriously as I do. It’s no joke. It’s the highest I’ve ever seen it.”
In a poll last month, more than half of Canadians said they understand the motivations of supporters of Alberta independence, even though nearly two-thirds said they don’t want that to happen.Carney Says Canada Is Stronger Together
Carney, who was raised in Alberta, said shortly after his election win that he is committed to “creating more opportunities in the energy sector for hardworking Albertans.”
Following his early May meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump he highlighted the need for Canadian unity, saying “Canada is stronger when we work together,” and adding, “I am Albertan. I proudly believe in Canada. So one can ask the question, but for me the answer is clear.”
Shortly after becoming prime minister, Carney eliminated the federal consumer carbon tax, saying it had become too “divisive,” but kept the industrial carbon pricing in place. He has declined to remove legislation such as the Impact Assessment Act criticized by Alberta and Saskatchewan premiers, but has said his new legislation under Bill C-5 would expedite major projects in the national interest. |
