The NAR has gotten pretty negative.....I take that as a contrarian indicator. Will be buying some housing stock [HOV] this week to add to my TOL.
Pending home sales index unexpectedly rises 0.2 pct in September
11.13.07, 3:20 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - Pending home sales showed unexpected stability in September despite widespread reports that buyers were finding mortgages harder to get or postponing purchases because of potential further price declines.
The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index(PHSI) rose 0.2 pct to 85.7 in September from the revised 85.5 reading for August. Economists were expecting a decline in the neighbourhood of 2.5 pct.
The September index was still 20.4 pct below its level a year earlier. 'Even with relatively low fourth-quarter sales,' said the NAR's senior economist Lawrence Yun, '2007 will be the fifth highest year on record for existing home sales.' He said the median price in 2007 will be down less than 2 pct from its 2006 peak.
The PHSI counts contracts signed for buying homes which usually result in the purchases closing, and appearing the the existing home sales statistics, a month or two later.
By region, the pending sales index was up 5.4 pct in the Midwest, up 1.5 pct in the South, down 0.1 pct in the West and down 10.1 pct in the Northeast.
'Some markets are still going strong, such as Austin and Raleigh,' Yun said, 'while others are showing early signs of recovery, like Denver and Boston.'
Along with the PSHI, Yun released the Realtors' 2008 existing home sales forecast, predicting a 'modest recovery as the impact of the credit crunch subsides.'
For next year, the NAR predicts 5.69 mln sales of existing homes, up slightly from the 5.67 mln expected by the end of this year. The median price should decline 1.7 pct to 218,200 this year, then hold steady in 2008.
Yun said the level of 'pent-up demand' for homes next year was uncertain, depending on how soon buyers regained confidence in the housing market. He said sales would be flat as long as the credit crunch lingers.
forbes.com |
