Leap Wireless International (LWIN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)

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To: KaiserSosze who wrote (358)	5/7/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: Shi	Read Replies (1) of 2737

Hi, thread, After crunching some numbers on the Qtr report and on LWIN website, I have the following estimates. Inputs are welcome. LWIN has a qtr revenue of 1.1m, coming from a subscriber base 13500 in Chile (50% of total). This gives an average sub. fee/qtr of $80, or $26/month (what is the typical income of a middle class chilean?). Now that LWIN bought out ChileSat, this same 27000 subscribers would generate 2.2 m revenue this qtr. The # of sub. grew 59% last qtr. The absolute # of new sub. is unknown. But if all subs. were added in two qtrs, this translates into 16000 new subs in the last qtr. Adjusting for holiday seasons, it may be safe to say the total sub. at the end of this qtr. may reach 50000. This would give a 4m dollar revenue. Is cricket service $20/month? LWIN now own all of 5000 subs. from last qtr. This would generate $0.3m revenue. Including new subs, this number could easily be twice that. Adding on to these, is the Pegaso service in Tijuana. I don't have any info. on the pricing. Do they intend to roll out service in other cities as well? Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see a of $4m to $5m qtr. Am I too conservative, or too optimistic? Shi

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