Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 333.92

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10:53 AM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (36679)	8/12/2000 1:59:28 AM
From: Kirk ©	of 70976

I like your reasoning. I agree also. I think the time to worry will be when big companies decide they MUST have their own fabs to control their destiny. This sort of "thing" cycles just like flat management cycles. Right now we are in an "anti consolidation" phase where companies toss out anything not growing fast. Eventually, the companies get to be a bunch of R&D engineers and marketeers and someone with some manufacturing power will eventually take them apart during a tough time in the market and then the cycle will probably begin again where Harvard and Stanford teach that it is "hip" to buy a bunch of fabs so you can control your destiny.... Anyway, I tried to be short. I think this "parts shortage" will be key and the only way to solve it is going to be alliances where companies like Cisco, Nokia, etc. invest in Fabs to guarantee parts... sort of like buy a corner of the fab.... they might even decide to do it all so they don't tip their hand to competitors... This is where I would look for over capacity... at least this is my thought for today. 8) Cheers. Kirk out

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