Gottfried, >Tony, please tell us here about IBM. It's sort of relevant,
I think. You can always stop when AMAT breaks out. :)
I'm stopped because AMAT is breaking out? Would be nice.
IBM
I know the most about their hardware product lines:
S390, mainframe
RS/6000, high end Unix servers
Netfinity, Intel based servers: NT, Unix, Linux
NUMA-Q, a different architecture, Unix and NT, also Intel Based.
AS/400, midrange Unix
PCs
Storage
Then there are Services
What I think of the different product lines' chances for success over the next 2 or 3 quarters:
S390 has a new model coming out Sept. - Oct. New models nowadays in the mainframe area are mostly speed bumps based on faster, more highly integrated CPU chips, copper in their case. Software, etc. about the same. This is about their 7th speed bump since they went to CMOS about 7 years ago. New models usually sell well for a while, as customers wait for them. However mainframe growth is sideways to down.
RS/6000 got their new models early this year or late last. IBM claims they are 2 - 3 times better in price/performance than Sun, the leader here. IBM also has said (actually IDC, good source) that they're outselling Sun by a lot with these machines. However, speculation is that a lot of the IBM outselling is in the smaller models (<100K or so). Also, Sun is cleaning up, we know from their results. Obviously, this is a hot server space. Sun is expected to come out with their Ultrasparc 3 machines some day, some year (maybe late this year now), catch back up at least in the performance part of the Price/perf. Doesn't seem to matter much to Sun. Compaq also has new "Wildfire" Alpha based machines that compete with both IBM and Sun, across the perf. range.
Netfinity has been a good, growing segment product for IBM. However, they're probably low margin compared with the above 2 class machines because of tough competition from Compaq, the clear leader here, plus HP and Dell.
NUMA-Q IBM got when they bought out Sequent. Not sure how many of these they sell, at all.
AS/400 has been a laggard for quite a few quarters.
PCs are pretty ho-hum with IBM lately.
Storage looks to be definitely lagging behind EMC. IBM introduced their Shark about 9 months ago, without even a fibre channel interface. They've since added it, but they definitely rushed Shark out there. I don't know that IBM has a NAS appliance, a la NTAP. EMC has a solution and Compaq just announced a hot looking one. Hot area to not be in. I could be wrong thinking IBM isn't.
IBM's services group is big with them now. All I know is that it's a nicely growing piece for them, and quite profitable. Here's a webpage that lists some of their offerings: ibm.com
All told, IBM has the products to do well in the next 2 or 3 quarters in S390, RS/6000, Netfinity (at least in sales, if not margins), and, definitely, services. Execution is another question, but they've done well with these before when they were fresh, probably should do well in the upcoming quarters also. On the hype side, all the analysts are calling IBM a 2H story. Personally, I think they went to the well a little often with the Y2K thing (although it was the most feared, planned for and reworked computer system type re remedial activity because of its long legacy). Me? I'd buy CPQ.
Tony |
