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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 180.88+2.0%Oct 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: carranza2 who wrote (36772)9/1/2003 3:38:14 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (1) of 196416
 
c2--Yes, EV-DV by Nokia is just another strategy to stall ANY advances to CDMA2000 in the hope that other, lesser performing intermediate technologies will suffice until something new comes around that isn't patented by QCOM.

A similar strategy was employed by the old RCA when it tried unsuccessfully to discourage FM radio from replacing AM. Back in the 1940's, Colonel Armstrong, who developed and patented FM radio, gave his patents to the industry when he died. RCA held most AM radio patents, so any movement to FM would result in less royalties for RCA. The strategy used by RCA was to market a low-cost FM table model with a poor quality speaker and circuitry that did not adjust for the "drift" common in FM designs at the time. People buying these radios were frustrated at having to tune them all the time to get rid of the static and hiss that came when the radio drifted off frequency, and they didn't see any particular sound advantage, given the cheap speakers.

The ploy fell apart when Zenith introduced a truly remarkable table model--with good styling using a bakelite case, a large, good sounding speaker, and circuitry that adjusted automatically for any drift.

As we all know, FM did not put an end to AM, but FM became the system of choice for listening to music. AM, with its limited audio range and atmospheric interference, but extended transmission range, became most useful for news and other voice, as opposed to music programming.

A similar trend seems at work now. GSM/TDMA, which uses a chip that may cost a bit less than a CDMA chip, is suitable for voice and short messaging, but works less well in high traffic periods, especially in urban rush hour situations. It can be (and is) marketed as a low-cost basic service for relatively intermittant use patterns. Note the advertising of Cingular for its "roll over" service that keeps monthly costs down. CDMA is the general purpose system of choice, easily upgradable to accommodate data access needs.

Like the famous Zenith FM table model (so,me of which are still in use after 50 years), CDMA will really take off when a versatile, low cost handset, probably with data access and camera features, is widely available and the pictures or other large files are transmitted in a matter of seconds directly to another receiver (not merely a server). Looks to me like many of the new CDMA phones already have these features at a modest cost. Thanks to number portability, it won't take long before the GSM users realize that they too can get these features by switching to CDMA but retaining their current cell phone number.

Art
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