Cha2,
<< It occurs to me that perhaps a major source of confusion has been at what point is WCDMA (UMTS) "in commercial use"? >>
New wireless technology is ready when ... its ready.
That's the major source of confusion.
Anything conjectured at this stage is crystal ball gazing.
I am more interested in GPRS and 1xMC takeup at this time because it starts the wireless voice tornado, hopefully by the end of this year.
GPRS has already rolled out a substantial amount of infra. QxRTT is only about 9 months behind GPRS and although it will be nowhere near as widely deployed as GPRS initially it will contribute to QUALCOMM's coffers.
For all intents and purposes, however it looks to me like W-CDMA (UMTS) will really be in limited commercial use by the middle of 2002, give or take 3 months. I am not talking about the very limited commercial launch DoCoMo will make at the end of May which will be small scale and very controlled.
<< This is important because this marks the beginning of the accrual of payments to Qualcomm for use of its IPR. >>
I am counting on virtually no W-CDMA revenue to Qualcomm in the current fiscal year (ending September 2001).
I am counting on negligible W-CDMA revenue to Qualcomm in the fiscal year (ending September 2002).
<< Yet substantial payments for IPR will only accrue when WCDMA (or UMTS) is in "wide scale general deployment" >>
I am counting on some small but meaningful W-CDMA revenue to Qualcomm in the fiscal year (ending September 2003).
I am counting on significant W-CDMA revenue to Qualcomm in the fiscal year (ending September 2004). I expect this to continue to ramp through the end of the decade.
Perhaps the following exercise will be helpful.
I think one of the more useful and realistic timescales available is Andrew Seybolds Wireless Roadmap" (which he updates from time to time).
wirelessroadmap.com
Go to the site, print out the roadmap, keep it handy.
Keep his definitions available and in mind. I've taken a few liberties with them below:
1. Technology is Available
* When Infrastructure manufacturers provide dates that their technology will be available, such dates indicate when the technology will be available to service providers, who in turn will install and test and begin to buildout a limited geography.
2. Technology is "Commercially Available"
* 3 to 6 months after "Technology is Available".
* Trials start.
* Debugging is taking place.
3. Limited Deployment
* About a year after Technology is Available there is limited deployment - the technology is made available commercially by the service provider, but in limited geographic locations.
* At this stage variety of handsets, WIDs, and modems is limited..
* The buildout of additional geography is taking place.
4. General Deployment
* Has been achieved when the data technology is available in nearly the same coverage area as the existing voice technology. At this stage, products and solutions enter the market.
* About a year after Limited Deployment began.
* A wide variety of name brand handsets, WIDs, and modems is available.
New wireless technology is ready when ... its ready.
* GSM was a year late. Jorma Ollila to the rescue.
>> Jorma Ollila became the head of Nokia's mobile-phone division in 1990. "The GSM project was in disarray. There was a lot of disillusionment with the spec and the difficulty of the technology," he recalls. "People were saying we wanted a racehorse, but some committee got into the design process and we ended up with a camel. But we continued because we believed in digital." Ollila appointed a new manager for the GSM team. On July 1, 1991, the first call ever placed on a commercial GSM network was made by the prime minister of Finland - on a Nokia phone. "There was a lot of difficulty, a lot of pain, a lot of soul-searching before we got there," says Ollila. His turnaround of the GSM project sufficiently impressed the Nokia board that they made Ollila the CEO a year later. <<
* CDMA floundered in Hong Kong for a year. Korea was in commercial trial for almost a year. Dr. Jacobs to the rescue.
- Eric - |
