Found this at www.microdisplay.com :
Soapbox
Ben Vaughan is a VP at InterSense Inc., a developer of trackers that
are sold and bundled with Sony headsets via an international network
of Resellers. Prior to joining InterSense, he was a founder of Retinal
Displays and worked with Virtuality Group. He can be reached at:
benv@isense.com.
Will Low-Cost Headsets Ever Become Commercially Successful? -
To an external observer, it must seem baffling that so many companies continue to enter the low-cost
personal display market when a quick look at the history would make most executives and investors run a
mile. However, as an industry insider that has watched the convergence of digital technology, 3D graphics
hardware & software, the Internet and low cost tracking & display technology, it comes as no surprise that
many of the world's leading electronics companies are now dominating this nascent market.
Early History - The Bleeding Edge
The early market, from 1993 to 1997, was dominated by small, entrepreneurial US companies that tried to
develop and mass-produce extremely complex products using components that were barely suitable for the
task. Poor optics, low resolution displays and jittery tilt-sensor trackers, integrated into bulky
uncomfortable shells, did little more than create a disaffected early-adopter base. In fact, a significant
proportion of units were sent back to the manufacturers under warranty claims. The roll call of failed
companies dabbling in this arena is extensive.
For example, Victormaxx sold 25,000 headsets, but 13,000 were returned as unfit for use. The company
folded the following year. Virtual I-O lost an estimated $50M for sales of 40,000 headsets. Kopin lost $5M
when it put Forte into Chapter 11. Virtual Entertainment Systems burned $5M trying to launch the 7th
Sense HMD and Hasbro wrote-off $57M after trying to develop an Internet-capable VR system. Virtuality
Group developed and licensed a headset to Takara in Japan and Philips for launch in the US, but despite
selling 65,000 units was not able to stave off collapse. Companies as disparate as Olympus, Atari, Astounding
Technologies and Sega all showed prototype consumer headsets that never made it through to production.
The bottom line numbers for this early period are frightening - some $200M of investment money was lost
for aggregate sales of approximately 200,000 units.
So What Is Different Today?
Firstly, the early entrepreneurs have been largely displaced, the headsets are much smaller and lighter, and
the display quality is greatly improved, mainly due to extremely good optics. Of the four companies that are
currently selling sub-$1000 headsets, three are large Japanese consumer electronics companies - Sony,
Canon and Olympus - while the fourth is the re-formed I-O Displays Systems.
But the market has not really taken off yet. We estimate that I-O is selling in the range of 500 units per
month, mainly in the US, while aggregate sales from the others are around 5,000 units per month in Japan -
volumes that are not significantly different from the early nineties. Despite the improvements in image,
optics and design, the resolution and price of the headsets are largely unchanged. Furthermore, integrated
tracking systems that transform headsets from miniature monitors to VR devices, by allowing the user to
navigate inside 3D worlds, are no longer standard.
For the mass consumer market to adopt headsets, they need to be at least SVGA resolution, retail under
$299, include a tracker, and have a wide field of view to deliver an immersive experience. Above all however,
they need to be discreet and designed so the user does not feel self-conscious - perhaps no more encumbering
than sunglasses.
To reach this goal, headset manufacturers are both selling into higher margin markets, like location-based
entertainment, wearable computing and simulation & training, while building the other parts of the
infrastructure. In this latter arena, perhaps the most significant development is the emergence of new
silicon-based flat-panel displays that offer the promise of very high-resolution at very low cost. Indeed,
Daeyang has announced plans to launch an $800 SVGA headset early next year, using
liquid-crystal-on-silicon displays from Colorado MicroDisplay (see July 1999, Microdisplay Report).
For virtual reality (VR) headsets, the most exciting developments have been the investments and alliances
that major computer players have made to improve the delivery real time 3D graphics. Examples include
Dell's alliance with Intergraph, Intel's investment in Evans & Sutherland, Sun's acquisition of the VPL
patents for VR and networked 3D. Let's not forget the imminent arrival of the next generation Playstation,
that will have the graphics performance of a high-end workstation.
Even more apparent are the steps taken by the major 3D software companies to develop their real time
expertise - Autodesk, Avid, Computer Associates, Dassault, EAI, Platinum Technologies and Parametric have
all acquired specialist "VR" companies over the last 12 months.
There seems little doubt that real time 3D will become the standard for the computing industry over the next
couple of years. I can not understand why anyone would wish to build 3D environments and then view them
through a 2D window when they can use a VR headset to go inside to explore and interact. As a result, I
believe that these specialized markets will grow rapidly and lead to low cost consumer headsets for
entertainment applications within the next three years. |
