If ARCI grows 3rd quarter revenues in year 2000 by 10% over 1999 3rd quarter, and achieves 50% gross margin vs 48% this year, and SG&A is $1.4M (what it should have been without one-time $74K payout and maybe $100K Y2K remediation costs? for the quarter...ARCI said they had $200,000 left to spend on Y2K going into Q3, according to 10-Q), then numbers next Q3 may look like this:
Revenues $5,158,000
Gr Profit$2,579,000
SG&A.....$1,400,000
Op Inc...$1,179,000
Int Exp..$200,000
Net Inc..$979,000
EPS......$0.43
Dil Shr..2,291,000 (after issuing 20,000 in Q3 to plaintiff)
2000 may look like this:
Q1 $0.10
Q2 $0.20
Q3 $0.43
Q4 $0.10
CY $0.83
ARCI might hit $8.30 assuming p/e of 10.
Who knows? Maybe $10.
I sure hope so....
Even half the EPS would be great. EPS of $0.40 for the year would be great, and may put ARCI at $4.
I love the margin of safety on ARCI from $1.50 and below.
$0.625 earlier this year is looking like 1 times forward EPS, maybe less. |
