To: john rieck who wrote (9320)
From: Zeev Hed
Wednesday, Dec 20, 2000 10:31 PM ET
Respond to Post # 9321 of 9321
Of course I am concerned, that is why I spread the risk. The way figured (before today's
massacre) was that 2500 should hold, it has not, but on the other hand, the decline was of
very unusual proportions, not only did we get now two days in a row of extreme reading in
the tic (worse than -1200), but today we also hit a new recent record in new lows (some
950 0n the naz). If we would have broken through the 2500 and had only a "mild" tic of
-800 to -950 and no more than some 400 new lows, I would have concluded that Chinese
torture style decline is still ahead. With the extreme reading we had, I believe that a very
powerful rally is at most three days out, that aslo fit with the general turnips script that had a
"top" (it was not particularly a "great top, but still was worth a very nice run when exiting
just before the fed spoke) on the 19th, another bottom either one day before or the day
after Christmas (this Friday or next Tuesday) and then a rally until either the first or second
week in January. Can the turnips be wrong? Sure, particularly around major turning points,
like late last March (they missed by more than a week and it was a tough week), but the
point is that i got to follow a plan, and that plan called for getting in by next Tuesday, many
of my target prices simply hit much earlier.
Zeev |
