US R&M:Updating estimates for Frontier Oil (U/A), Sunoco (IL/A), and Tesoro (IL/A) - Goldman Sachs - November 03, 2005
We are updating our full-year 2005 EPS estimate for Frontier Oil to $3.82 ($4.26 before) to reflect actual 3Q 2005 results. For Sunoco, we are updating our full-year 2005-2007 EPS estimates to $6.83 ($7.08 before), $8.45 ($8.85 before), and $9.00 ($9.15 before), respectively, to reflect actual 3Q 2005 results and a slightly weaker outlook for chemicals than previously assumed. For Tesoro, we are updating our 4Q and full-year 2005- 2010 EPS estimates to $1.64 ($1.35 before), $8.05 ($7.63 before), $13.05 ($12.80 before), $15.75 ($15.40 before), $3.70 ($3.65 before), $3.85 ($3.76 before), and $4.05 ($3.87 before), respectively, to reflect actual 3Q results, updated throughput guidance, estimated impact from incremental refinery projects, higher assumed interest expense, and minor other adjustments. There is no change to our company-specific ratings and our Attractive coverage view.
Frontier reported clean 3Q EPS of $1.47, below the $1.57 First Call consensus and our $1.90 forecast. The negative variance was primarily driven by lower-than-expected realized refining margins.
Sunoco reported clean 3Q EPS of $2.60, below the $2.72 First Call consensus and our $2.85 forecast. The negative variance was due to lower-than- expected realized margins and higher-than-expected corporate charges.
Tesoro reported clean 3Q EPS of $3.28, above the $3.17 First Call consensus and our $3.15 forecast. The positive variance was driven by higher-than- expected throughput volumes, lower-than-expected corporate charges, and lower-than-expected effective tax rate.
I, Arjun Murti, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. |
