Analysts and calls -- US Bancorp Piper Jaffray Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Analysts and calls -- US Bancorp Piper Jaffray

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (3)	11/20/2002 5:23:53 PM
From: JFitnich	Read Replies (1) of 22

Rick, They spoke with 13 out of the roughly 80 sites that are doing the PH 3, (they did note that they disclosed who they were to all parties...no Risk / Sterling situation here) and commissioned a biostatistician to assess the design of the PH 3 trial and also review the results of the PH 2 trial. They got inconclusive feedback. While they think the drug works, a 35% survival improvement may be too high to clear for the trial to be successful. The stat guy says that if the trial were powered enough to detect a 20-25% survival benefit, the trial would have a better shot. Several clinicians are enthusiastic and have had patients who have lived beyond 2 years. Statistician said that the drug had a large effect on the survival in the P2. I'm skipping over much obviously, but that's the gist. They also included a reference page with several journal articles listed. A rarity in my report reading. He views the trial as a 50/50 chance of success and sees the range as $3-$21. Price target of $12 in the middle. It wasn't groundbreaking, but it's the kind of report I wish we could see more often. Analysis rather than a restatement of information. Jason

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