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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.71

-0.8%

1:33 PM EST

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To: LLCF who wrote (405)	9/29/1999 10:39:00 PM
From: Biomaven	of 52153

David, I would put Bexxar's chance of approval high - maybe 80% or better for ultimate approval. At issue is the timing of the approval - the later it happens the less of a start they get compared to IDPH's new drug (Zevalin) - and what sort of label Bexxar will get at the outset. A safe way to play this is to buy both CLTR and IDPH. They are both down a lot, and between them they are ultimately going to split a $1 billion market. IDPH is running lots of trials to expand their label. Their new drug seems to me not as good as Bexxar, but I assume it will find a niche as well. I think the market has wildly overreacted to the CLTR delay. Of course the company has considerable egg on its face, and they need to regain credibility. it's not risk free of course, but I think it has a very good risk-reward ratio. Peter

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