Democrats Get Ready for Mid-February Showdown
Thursday, February 05, 2004
Rivals to Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry (search) are fanning across the country in an attempt to garner enough support to close the gap between them and the seven-state winner.
Wesley Clark (search) and John Edwards (search) skipped campaigning for this weekend's contests in Michigan, Maine and Washington state in order to focus on Virginia and Tennessee, two states that vote on Tuesday and where the candidates have southern roots.
Clark takes a bus tour of Tennessee while Edwards will travel from Memphis to Virginia.
Meanwhile, President Bush is headed for South Carolina on Thursday, making an appearance of his own to reclaim the stage.
After a week of Democrats saying it's the economy, stupid, Bush will say no it's not, it's the war on terrorism. He'll talk about improving security in the port of Charleston and elsewhere, with lawmakers warning that few of the container cargo ships that dock in our ports every day are truly checked.
Michigan and Washington state hold caucuses on Saturday, and Maine comes a day later for a total of 230 pledged delegates -- nearly as many that were at stake Tuesday when voters in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Carolina and Oklahoma went to the polls and caucuses.
A candidate needs 2,162 delegates to win the nomination. Kerry won five states and the lion's share of the delegates Tuesday, giving him 144 delegates in all. Edwards won 66, Clark 50, Howard Dean seven and Al Sharpton two. He earlier had won Iowa and New Hampshire, giving him seven victories in the nine contests held so far.
Dean, the former governor of Vermont, plans to campaign in Michigan, but has acknowledged that he probably can't win there in Saturday's caucuses. He still hopes to pick up enough delegates to keep him in the race.
All the candidates are pointing to a Feb. 17 showdown in Wisconsin, which Dean has targeted for an all-out attempt to block Kerry.
Dean sent out an e-mail to supporters Thursday saying Wisconsin is the "true test" of his campaign.
"The entire race has come down to this: We must win Wisconsin," Dean wrote to supporters, saying he needed to raise $700,000 by Sunday to launch a new television advertisement on Monday in major markets there.
"A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2 -- and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race."
But the odds are with Kerry, who has the most money and allies.
"Without money, you can't have the troops. Without troops, you can't compete. How can you compete with a guy who can write himself a check for ads in California?" said Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus.
Gearing Up for 'Super Tuesday'
Clark, Edwards and Dean hope to rise out of Wisconsin as the only alternative to Kerry when the race turns to contests in California, New York and eight other "Super Tuesday" states March 2.
Two officials close to Clark said the retired Army general considered dropping out of the race Tuesday night after scoring an unofficial single victory, a nail-biter in Oklahoma. They said his wife, Gert, helped talk him into staying in the race against the advice of some backers.
Clark's staff also agreed to a pay freeze to pay for television ads.
The hopes of Edwards, Clark and Dean hinged on two matters that were out of their control - Kerry's future performance on the campaign trail and his past.
Dean suggested that "it'll be more of the same" if Kerry replaces Bush in the White House. Clark criticized both Kerry and Edwards, faulting them for complaining about White House policies that they had backed in the Senate.
Clark and Edwards do not plan to visit the states. Their strategists, focused on Tuesday's must-win Southern races, believe that Kerry will dominate the weekend contests.
In Michigan, where 128 delegates are at stake, polls show Kerry leading Edwards and Dean by more than 40 percentage points. He also has the endorsement of Gov. Jennifer Granholm.
There are no public polls in Washington state and Maine, but strategists for all four campaigns said Kerry should win easily. Kerry's internal polls show him safely leading in both states, sources close to the senator said.
Dean's strategists hold out a glimmer of hope because Washington has a history of backing underdogs and Maine has a small, unpredictable Democratic voting base. The state's 78 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention are at stake -- the largest bloc since voting began last month in Iowa.
The doctor-turned-politician also has drawn some of his biggest crowds and fattest campaign contributions from the region.
Confident of victory, Kerry opted not to advertise in the weekend states, though he will travel to them. Dean had no choice; he is short on money and is saving his resources for Wisconsin.
But he still said, "We are going to win the Washington caucuses," on Wednesday. "Washington state will be the turning point, if we win, of this campaign."
The land of Microsoft and anti-war protesters in Washington seems tailor made for Dean, whose Internet-driven campaign and opposition to the Iraq war vaulted him to the front of the Democratic pack. Dean raised nearly $680,000 there last year, more than most of his rivals combined.
"We're known for our edgy liberalism," said state Democratic Chairman Paul Berendt, who backs Dean and thinks he can blunt Kerry's momentum.
"Washington loves the maverick," Berendt added, noting previous successes there over establishment favorites by Democrats Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, Gary Hart, and Jesse Jackson.
Looking ahead to Wisconsin, Edwards and Clark decided Wednesday to air ads in the state.
Kerry hopes to knock one or both of them out of the race next week, thus he decided to air ads in Tennessee, Virginia and the District of Columbia, an expensive TV market that reaches into heavily Democratic northern Virginia. Clark and Edwards are buying ads in Virginia and Tennessee, but not in the critical northern Virginia market.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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