Not a bad day in the land of the Bears:
My Short Positions:
finance.yahoo.com
< ...damn DRQ ruined an otherwise "perfect" day in the Oilpatch >
Gold is still following other commodities - Oil, Copper and/or Currencies.
I would prefer that it lead...and then ultimately; that the "stocks" would lead the metal - but, at the risk of being a bit redundant.... I do NOT think that is going to happen untill Gold the Metal - breaks $456 and that's going to take either the USD breaking down thru support, or for Oil and/or Copper to breakout hard and fast for another significant run here.
The HUI is now sitting atop a +50 point Index move - 165 to 215; but 40 of those 50 points, all came in the first 20 trading days and the final 10 points over 9 choppy weeks...
Nothing wrong with forming a base here... it was a prudent time to bank the trade imho... sit in cash and patiently wait for either another "smackdown" on POG from the Commercials and perhaps a chance to buy 'em all back again - cheaper. Or, to wait for Gold to challenge it's former $456 high and re-enter on confirmed strength.
In the nearterm, the HUI still has that 227ish overhead resitance/failure from the March move off of that 190 bottom and all I'm doing is monitoring the USD and Gold's move in other currencies ($xjy,$xsf,$xed,$xad,$xbp,$zar etc).
We really need the US Dollar to rollover and break thru recent support...for POG to break that $456+ prior high....but, with the reaction to yesterday's TIC - we may have to be a bit more patient.
If Oil and Copper mount another signficant breakout... that could also pull Gold higher...but, for Gold to resume it's status of being the LEADER vs. a laggard .... we need the currencies to lead the metal imo.
I'm patiently waiting to buy 'em back cheaper if the Commercial's give us another "smackdown" ... or, for Currencies to give the signal to POG Bull's that we're running straight thru $500+ and presently, the USD is still hanging in there (for now).
I find it easier to be more Patient, when the "profits" are already safely locked away...
Time to be a POG-Pig vs. a POG-Bull imo...
I'm hoping that I can pick up a nice little Short-Sided Chunk-o-Change in the Oilpatch, the Homebuilders, Airlines and the Broad Market while Gold bases here....and I will be very, very happy if we got a nice little 50% retracement on a "smackdown" on Gold from the Commercials ...and a chance to buy 'em back around HUI 190.
That will actually form the type of base that I think we need to launch that final move thru $500 POG and HUI 300+.
...patience.
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