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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ultra Petroleum (UPL)

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To: Traveling Man who wrote (4095)5/1/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: ISPYOIL  Read Replies (4) of 4851
 
Your Pressure Decline vs Reserves Analysis is NOT CORRECT, in a depletion drive reservoir, essentially no outside fluid influx eg water, the reservoir volume is sealed and the rate of depletion has little impact on the ultimate recovery ie reserves, thus the only problem is efficient sizing of facilities etc. wide open flow can cause some hole conditions ie sand flow into well bore but basically the higher the flow rate the higher flow remains after the initial severe declines as these wells decline hyperbolically and flatten out to very slow decline rates, in fact the sands are so tight ie low permeability that combined with the great thickness of pay, steady state flow is never reached ie "permanent" transient flow, and now back to the practical side: the higher the initial flow rates, the higher the eventual asymtotic flow rate ie the leveling of to a very slow decline rate, and therefore the higher this rate is the higher is the time to reach the economic limit and therefore the higher the economic reserves will be , thus higher initial flow rates lead to higher ECONOMIC reserves, the theoretically reserves without economic limits would be the same at infinite time horizon, ie 100000 years or more
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