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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends
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To: Tweets Boar Hog who wrote (40989)10/14/2025 9:09:08 AM
From: bob_o  Read Replies (2) of 41007
 
TBH - Thanks for the reply. The plot in my post past the October 9 close is the predicted qualitative moves in the S&P based on the combination of optimized cycles that I discussed in my post. To be a little clearer (hopefully) on my methodology, I use a least squares optimization to get each cycle, with its six sub-cycles, to fit the actual price data as closely as possible. The first optimization step uses the amplitude of the cycle and each of its sub-cycles as variables. (Sub-cycles start with the main cycle divided by 2, and then keep dividing the results by 2 to get the remaining sub-cycles.) I then do another optimization that uses a phase shift value as a variable to be applied to each initial sub-cycle value. All of the resulting predicted daily data points for each cycle are then multiplied by a weighting factor. The predicted price is the sum of those weighted daily price predictions for each primary cycle. The final step is the optimization on the sum of those weighted daily predictions to best fit actual daily prices using the weighting factor for each cycle as variables. Everything is done in Excel using the Solver add-in.

I also did a Hurst cycle projection using that October 2022 low you mentioned as a starting point. When I get a chance, I plan to add that one to the mix and see what effect that has on the price predictions.
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